Is The Fed Changing Its Tune?
By:
Cam Hui Wednesday, October 14, 2009 9:54 AM
The headline read
Bullard warns on inflation, unemployment. On the weekend St. Louis Fed governor James Bullard warned on the risks of inflation. The
press release reads that:
Bullard also expressed concern that inflation risks in the medium term may be higher than widely believed. He said that too much emphasis is being given to the idea that the recession implies that the output gap is currently quite large, minimizing the risk of inflation.
What's going on? Isn't this the same man that
declared back in August that interest rates would stay low for a very, very long time and the "markets haven't digested what that means?"
Inflationary expectations are rising
The answer can be found in a recent
speech by Fed vice chair Don Kohn (emphasis mine):
To be sure, we have not followed the theoretical prescription of promising to keep rates low enough for long enough to create a period of above-normal inflation. The arguments in favor of such a policy hinge on a clear understanding on the part of the public that the central bank will tolerate increased inflation only temporarily--say, for a few years once the economy has recovered--before returning to the original inflation target in the long term. In standard theoretical model environments, long-run inflation expectations are perfectly anchored. In reality, however, the anchoring of inflation expectations has been a hard-won achievement of monetary policy over the past few decades, and we should not take this stability for granted. Models are by their nature only a stylized representation of reality, and a policy of achieving "temporarily" higher inflation over the medium term would run the risk of altering inflation expectations beyond the horizon that is desirable. Were that to happen, the costs of bringing expectations back to their current anchored state might be quite high.
The Fed is worried about the "anchoring" of inflationary expectations, or inflationary expectations rising out of control. They have embarked on a policy of jawboning inflationary expectations down even as Bullard, in the same breath that he used to warn against rising inflationary expectations, admits that
quantitative easing isn't done yet.
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