UBS Preview of Thursday’s Economic Data
Thursday preview: Manufacturing resurgent, tame CPI, falling claims?
(1) After surging into positive territory in Aug and rising further in Sep, we forecast another relatively high reading in Oct for the current activity index in the Empire State manufacturing survey (UBSe 19.0, cons 17.3, after 18.9). We expect a similar pattern in the Philadelphia Fed measure (UBSe 14.0, cons 12.0, after 14.1) (2) New jobless claims have fallen since the end of Aug, and we forecast a further decline in the week of Oct 10 (UBSe & cons 520k, after 521k). (3) The total CPI likely rose only modestly in Sep (UBSe 0.1%, cons 0.2%, after 0.4%), including an only minimal boost from food and energy and another tame reading on the core CPI (UBSe & cons 0.1%, after 0.1%). (4) Fed balance sheet data will also be reported. (5) St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give opening remarks at a St. Louis Fed conference on "Debt, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy".
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