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Citibank (C) And Goldman (GS): Is The Bloom Coming Off The Rose?
By: Karl Denninger   Thursday, October 15, 2009 10:03 AM

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Citibank (C) and Goldman (GS) reported this morning and both put up what looked at first blush to be better-than-expected numbers.

But both sold off in the premarket.  Why?

The bulls were expecting not just beats, but stunning blowouts.

But what we are not hearing from the banking industry is "we have enough loss reserves allocated and will not have to allocate more as loss rates are and will continue to come down."

That's the problem at the end of the day - where is the end of the line?  Asset quality continues to deteriorate pretty significantly and this deterioration is driven by unemployment and over-leveraged consumers and businesses - trading revenues are great but in a fractional system loan losses always sink you because of the multiplier effect.

Harley Davidson (HOG) reported a miss on slightly-higher revenue.  The key here is that once again sales (units) declined although they said that the rate of decline "moderated".  So how does revenue go up?  Driving prices higher?  Not sure at first blush, but the firm is also talking about divesting or winding up Buell and Augusta.  Neither of those actions are going to be revenue positive going forward.  The money quote on operating results is here:

Worldwide retail sales of new Harley-Davidson® motorcycles declined 21.3 percent in the third quarter compared to last year's third quarter, an improvement from the 30.1 percent decline in this year's second quarter.

That's not a good sign, especially when one looks at the US picture:

Retail Motorcycle Sales. During the third quarter, retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 21.3 percent worldwide, 24.3 percent in the U.S. and 13.1 percent in international markets, compared to the prior-year quarter.

Ah, US weaker than rest-of-world. 

Again, as with J&J (JNJ) yesterday.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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