Amid positive signals emanating from the uptick in housing prices and an improving outlook for consumer spending, the housing sector is gradually stabilizing. Both new and existing home sales have increased during the last four consecutive months and are now 32% and 17% above their recent lows, respectively. Single-family housing starts have also risen 37% from their low point, and inventories of homes-for-sale have fallen sharply.

Equity REITs rebounded nicely in the third quarter, recording total returns of 33% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) vs. a 15% gain each for the S&P and the Dow. The strong third quarter returns marked the second consecutive record-setting performance of equity REITs after a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2009.

In what has been a volatile year, equity REITs gained approximately 29% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) in the second quarter after falling 32% in the first quarter. So far in October, equity REITs are down about 1%; the worst performing sectors in October have been Self Storage (- 3.4%), Retail (-1.6%), Industrial/Office (-1.6%), and Residential (-0.8%).

OPPORTUNITIES

Many REITs are still trading at discounts to NAV (net asset value), traditionally a good "buy" signal. Over the past seven or so years, REITs have traded near or in excess of NAV.

With dividend cuts and share price gains, the average yield for equity REITs during the third quarter was about 4%. Although yields have exceeded that of the 10-year Treasury, the spread has narrowed considerably over the past quarter. Most companies have been raising cash through asset sales and equity financing, with the proceeds being used to pay down debt.

The credit freeze will have a positive effect on commercial real estate down the road; new office, apartment and retail construction has slowed considerably, which will benefit owners in a couple of years. Many companies that we cover have stopped all-new construction.

In this environment, we like well-capitalized companies that have adequate liquidity and manageable near-term debt maturities. Currently, we are bullish on American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), a mortgage REIT that invests exclusively in agency securities for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by U.S. government agencies like Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).