The window of opportunity is still wide
open.
When the markets were in a state of
confusion last fall, we tried to keep our heads level and focus on the future.
One of the areas we inevitably turned
to was agriculture:
This is a pretty simple one. The world's population is
growing and the world's available farmland is not. The question here is not if there will be a big payoff, but when.
Of course, the whole investment world knew
that. And it's why agriculture stocks made such a big run between 2006 and
2008.
The good news is, however, the run in
agriculture is far from over. In fact, it looks like agriculture stocks are
just starting to get attention again. It really looks like the world is finally
starting to see the "agtastrophe" approaching and now is a great time to get on
board. Here's why.
Supply
and Demand: It Really is Just That Simple
The most obvious (and often touted) reason
to buy agriculture stocks is simple.
The recent United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted:
Worldwide food
production will have to rise by a staggering 70 per cent by the middle of this
century if food riots are not to become commonplace…Almost 400 million people
will face famine unless food production is dramatically and urgently increased.
Although I have reservations about
accepting predictions from an organization whose funding is highly correlated
to its predictions (the more dire the picture you can paint, the more funding
you will receive), the FAO does sum up the core of the opportunity. Demand for
food was, is, and will continue to be rising. Meanwhile, supply just isn't
keeping up.

The chart above shows world agriculture
production has increased a paltry 12% in the past two decades.
That's an annualized growth rate of 0.56%
per year. That's just not going to cut it. In order to meet the FAO's statement
agriculture production must grow by 70% in the next 30 years and would require
and an annualized growth rate of 1.6% - almost three times faster than
the rate over the past 20 years.
It's not just the basic supply/demand argument
though. There's also substantial upside in agriculture.
If
Oil's Headed to $200 a Barrel…
Commodities have proven to be one of the
favored safe havens of Wall Street over the past few months. Oil is trading
hands for more than $80 a barrel. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in
the past few months. Metals prices have soared across the board. You name it -
copper, gold, silver, etc.