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5 Reasons To Buy Agriculture Stocks Now
By: Andrew Mickey   Friday, October 23, 2009 11:20 AM

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When the markets were in a state of confusion last fall, we tried to keep our heads level and focus on the future.

One of the areas we inevitably turned to was agriculture:

This is a pretty simple one. The world's population is growing and the world's available farmland is not. The question here is not if there will be a big payoff, but when.

Of course, the whole investment world knew that. And it's why agriculture stocks made such a big run between 2006 and 2008.

The good news is, however, the run in agriculture is far from over. In fact, it looks like agriculture stocks are just starting to get attention again. It really looks like the world is finally starting to see the "agtastrophe" approaching and now is a great time to get on board. Here's why.

Supply and Demand: It Really is Just That Simple

The most obvious (and often touted) reason to buy agriculture stocks is simple.

The recent United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted:

Worldwide food production will have to rise by a staggering 70 per cent by the middle of this century if food riots are not to become commonplace…Almost 400 million people will face famine unless food production is dramatically and urgently increased.

Although I have reservations about accepting predictions from an organization whose funding is highly correlated to its predictions (the more dire the picture you can paint, the more funding you will receive), the FAO does sum up the core of the opportunity. Demand for food was, is, and will continue to be rising. Meanwhile, supply just isn't keeping up.

The chart above shows world agriculture production has increased a paltry 12% in the past two decades.

That's an annualized growth rate of 0.56% per year. That's just not going to cut it. In order to meet the FAO's statement agriculture production must grow by 70% in the next 30 years and would require and an annualized growth rate of 1.6% - almost three times faster than the rate over the past 20 years.

It's not just the basic supply/demand argument though. There's also substantial upside in agriculture.

If Oil's Headed to $200 a Barrel…

Commodities have proven to be one of the favored safe havens of Wall Street over the past few months. Oil is trading hands for more than $80 a barrel. Natural gas prices have more than doubled in the past few months. Metals prices have soared across the board. You name it - copper, gold, silver, etc.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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