Weekend Commentary : Lateral Market...Negative Divergences Abound...
Wouldn't it be nice if the stock market would actually do something! Lateral has been the way for quite some time now. Lots of head fakes both ways but when you study things, the past month or so has seen the market grind up and down due to opposing forces from both the bullish side and the bearish side of the ledger. The bulls can talk quite a bit about what's being reported from our Government. I'm not saying they're reporting the absolute truth. I'm just saying what's being reported. Most of the economic news is favorable these days. It tells us the worst of things has passed on by. Has it? I am not so sure but that's their suggestion. The market is buying it for now. The bulls can also claim that earnings are coming in better than expected. Are they really? Well, I am not so sure since many, not all, but many of the better reports are due to cost cutting. How do we know? Earnings are beating in many cases by a huge amount yet revenues are only in line or in many cases, even a drop below. Cutting costs by cutting jobs and or job hours. Not exactly a pillar of health but hey, for now the market doesn't care and that's all we care about when playing this silly game. So earnings and economic news are clearly on the side of the bulls. On the side of the bears we have overbought daily charts in conjunction with massive consecutive negative divergences on the those same charts. A very ugly combination. We also have massive price resistance just above on those trend lines you'll see in the charts in this report. You also have a high number of stocks on a high pole that need to pull back. Their moves very mature meaning any upside from here is labored at best. It can occur but won't be easy by an means. Stocks on high poles with negative divergences and overbought can be a real headache for the bulls thus expecting much upside near term isn't wise. So the bulls have some advantages and you can see the bears do as well. It all equates to a market that has moved laterally for the last month plus and we all know lateral market are absolutely no fun. Until this lateral market makes the move over key resistance or Sp 1101 on a closing basis or below key support or Sp 1074 on a closing basis, you can expect much of the same lateral boredom.
With the 20 day exponential moving average at 1074 and with the gap bottom at 1075 you can understand why it is very difficult for you bears to get much satisfaction. A strong confluence of support that gets the bulls very excited we get near there. The bulls have had a fun seven months and keep looking for entry. Whenever we get down to key support, especially when it's a confluence of support, meaning supported by a close proximity of price, the bulls buy away. It doesn't mean we won't break below at some point very soon, it just means this is why it has been so hard for the bears to get that warm feeling only a collapsing market can give them.
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