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Leap Wireless (NASDAQ: LEAP) & Metropcs (NYSE: PCS): Bounce Time?
By: Notable Calls   Monday, October 26, 2009 9:20 AM

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I'm seeing some interesting comments on Leap Wireless (NASDAQ:LEAP) & Metropcs (NYSE:PCS) after T-Mobile USA launched its new pricing plans, which have been speculated about recently as part of "Project Black/Dark".

- Piper Jaffray notes the the new plans are more benign than investors' initial fears and could relieve some pressure on wireless stocks.

Firm notes they think T-Mobile's new plans most directly target Sprint's prepaid and Simply Everything plans, as well as AT&T's (T) new GoPhone offer. The pricing levels are generally too high to be a major competitive threat to Leap or MetroPCS, yet don't offer the robust 3G networks of AT&T or Verizon.

It will also be interesting to gauge consumer interest in plans without a handset subsidy; recall iPhone sales were tepid prior to a price drop when first introduced and really accelerated once subsidies were included with a higher monthly recurring fee.

- Goldman Sachs says new pricing appears more rational than recent reports, which had indicated potential "all you can eat" unlimited talk/text/data plans for $60/month (Project Dark introduced this for as low as $80/month). So, this is not as bad as perhaps many had feared. However, on net this is another viable competitor at the lower end of the market, with an offering around no contract unlimited that more directly competes against Leap, MetroPCS and Boost in particular. Additionally, the plans aim to reinforce the company as the value alternative at the higher end of the postpaid market.


- Oppenheimer notes that as they expected, T-Mobile unveiled new prices between $50-80/month for unlimited voice+text+web contract/no contract options, which validates information leaks over the past few weeks that its new pricing scheme was not going to be as deeply discounted as originally feared. They believe this is the last major price move in the 2008-09 Wireless Price War, and expect pricing stability for at least a year.

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