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By Keith Fitz-Gerald) By now virtually every investor has heard the argument that the U.S. dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that's good – as far as it goes.
What's bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize and in a manner that will catch most by surprise.
Let's take a look at the three key reasons that this shift away from the U.S. dollar happening – and sooner rather than later:
1. The Asian Region Currency Partnership: Japan, once the staunchest of U.S. allies, is leading the charge to form a regional currency partnership based on closer ties between itself, China and South Korea. Ostensibly part of the second trilateral "leader's meeting," that happened earlier this year, financial cooperation was front and center on the agenda (at Japan's invitation) as a means of coping with the ongoing global financial crisis and with the subsequent resumption of worldwide financial growth. It was also key to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) discussions that took place this past weekend – with the waning influence of the U.S. economy again playing a key role in the discussion amongst potential ASEAN trading block partners.
At a time when U.S. leaders are fooling only themselves by pretending this country remains the key player in the health of the worldwide economy, Japan's newly elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama didn't mince words following the trilateral meeting when making such comments as "until now we have been too reliant on the United States" and "I would like to develop policies that focus more on Asia" to press-corps attendees.
Having spent 20 years in the region, I can't say I'm surprised by this development. And you shouldn't be, either. Between China, South Korea and Japan, we're talking about 16% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) – a figure that's growing almost daily, by the way.
There are obviously some significant challenges, given the cultural sensitivities that remain in the region as a result of World War II. But even those are being trumped by today's serious global financial demands.