Two weeks ago, I told you why a quick look at Colgate's chart led me to believe that its run was going to continue through the early fall. And I also said that I had a few reasons to be wary of the stock's ability to continue rising going forward.
If you're a Dividend Superstars subscriber, you should have closed out that position based on my recommendation in the issue that just went to press. I'm tracking a gain of 32.7 percent. Great!
Now today I want to talk about a couple of the other things I look at on charts … and how they apply to some of the other investments that I've mentioned before here in Money and Markets.
Let's start with …
The Importance of Support and Resistance:
Understanding Investors' "Lines in the Sand"
Investors have a tendency to get hung up on certain numbers … quite often round ones. You know, like Dow 10,000.
I'm not a psychologist, so I'm not going to hypothesize on why it happens. But from many years of following the markets, I can tell you that it does happen with alarming regularity.
This is precisely why I pay close attention to clear levels of support and resistance whenever I look at any investment's chart.
Let me explain with a real-world example …
Here's a chart from Vanguard's Inflation-Protected Securities fund (VIPSX), a good stand-in for the TIPS and I-Bond inflation hedges I've been regularly suggesting here and in Dividend Superstars …

In my past discussions of this particular fund, I pointed out that the low $12 level seemed very important psychologically to this particular investment. That's because — as my trendline demonstrates — the fund had repeatedly bumped against this level before the credit crisis began … and again after the market rally started in 2009.
As you can see, once it recently broke through that level, it swiftly moved up another 4 percent. While that move might not sound huge, you have to remember that this is a mutual fund based on government bonds!
Are there fundamental reasons behind the move? Absolutely. Worries over a falling dollar and renewed inflation are obvious catalysts spurring investors to move into these hedging investments.
But that's the point: These charts reflect the market's collective thoughts and opinions. When events are enough to push an investment through a level that previously presented resistance … it means a certain critical mass has been achieved … and momentum quite often takes over from there.
Obviously the opposite is also true.