For some, investing in solar stocks over the past six months has delivered once-in-a-life-time results:
Others haven't had it so good:
Indeed, playing cleantech's franchise player has proven to be a tough gig.
On one hand, you have a small group of Chinese companies on the brink of doubling or tripling in just two quarters.
On the other. . . a wild roller-coaster ride has ended as it usually does, back at the starting gate.
But what's stoking such discrepancies in a group of stocks that are so closely related?
A Lack of Solar Education
I'm convinced the reason for such volatility and variance is a lack of solar understanding and education that is worsened by constant misinformation from the media.
For the second group of solar stocks above, a downtrend since June doesn't make much sense at all. Granted, the summer months were sluggish. . . but there was a significant uptick in sales during August and September, with demand exceeding supply for several major producers.
That increase in demand should have acted as a bullish signal for major module producers and cell manufacturers.
Instead, it was the so-called second tier suppliers, like Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), that saw a major jump.
That surge in demand should continue, buoyed by an already-passed 1 GW Chinese solar subsidy and new tax advantages included in the U.S. stimulus. An additional 1 GW subsidy could be passed by the central Chinese government in coming months.
What's more, that same increase in demand is allowing installers and distributors to mark up prices for panels, which could lead to higher average selling prices (ASPs) for suppliers down the road.
And finally, this increase in demand should bump up fourth quarter shipments just enough to beat expectations, which always leads to higher valuations.
This is probably all new information to you. And that's part of the problem. . .
Because you don't always get the full story by reading mainstream news and press releases.