Today's update on new orders for durable goods reminds that the slash-and-burn of the Great Recession is over, replaced by the tedious business of rebuilding what's been lost.
Once again, the news is encouraging, if only because the deep pain of the recent past fades as an imminent threat. And so the crowd can look with somewhat less-anxious eyes to the 1.0% rise in new durable goods orders and find a measure of comfort. As our chart below shows, the orders are rising off the bottom that formed in the first half of this year. But as anyone can also see, the work of rebuilding what's been lost has only just begun and climbing this hill will take time, in part because the recovery is susceptible to the usual hazards that loom in every post-crash period. True for durable goods, and for many other measures of economic activity.
But let's revel in the good news, if only for a minute. That includes recognizing that orders rose at a healthy clip even after subtracting the standard noisemakers: transportation and defense. That tells us that the advance was broad based. And so it was, save for a few minor holdouts.
At the same time, it may be dawning on the crowd that the recovery, while looking intact for the moment, is set to be increasingly boring. The excitement of the past six months or so is on track for the dull business of looking forward, finding challenges and formulating responses. That's quite different from weighing the data du jour, looking backward and cheering that we've sidestepped a larger disaster.
The future, to put it bluntly, looks rather tedious from our perch. Rebuilding and reviving the economy from here on out will take real work that doesn't lend itself to big headlines and late-night meetings on Wall Street and in Washington's halls of power. We're no longer in imminent danger of collapse but we're not poised for robust growth either. Changing this future will only come with time. There are no new TARPs waiting in the wings to spirit us back to the good old days. The government has pulled all the rabbits out of its hat, and with some progress to show for it.
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