Our friend Andy Rothman from research firm CLSA sent out an
interesting chart last week following the release of China's
macroeconomic data for the month of September.
As you can see from the chart, private investment (Non State-Owned
Enterprises) growth accelerated to 37 percent on a year-over-year
basis, a more rapid rate than that of state-owned enterprises. This is
the first time we've seen this happen since October of last year and it
is the fastest rate of growth since November 2007.
A more confident private sector should not only make China's ongoing
recovery more sustainable in a time of diminishing government-mandated
stimulus, but also facilitate the structural transition of the Chinese
economy toward private consumption.
The private investment revival is largely driven by the real estate
sector, which has seen inventory levels drop in major cities like
Beijing and Shanghai. CLSA's on the ground survey revealed that 50
percent of middle-class families surveyed said they were considering
buying an apartment.
Activity has also picked up in the business sector. Out of more than
100 small- to medium-sized enterprises surveyed, 32 percent added staff
during this past quarter and more than that expected to do so this
quarter. Even more telling is that more than two-thirds of the small-
to medium-sized enterprises expect the business environment to improve
over the next six months.
It's still too early to call but this could mark a shift in China in
which the government's economic assistance is reduced and economic
growth is sustained by the private sector.