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Another Bad Economic Report (PCI/Spend)
By: Karl Denninger   Friday, October 30, 2009 9:25 AM

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How do you get "economic recovery" out of these numbers?

Personal income decreased $0.1 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $0.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $47.2 billion, or 0.5 percent.

That looks like flat income and down spending to me.

Oh wait - we have to read past the first two sentences, right? 

Let's do that.

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $11.2 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $10.1 billion in August.  Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $7.8 billion, compared with a decrease of $6.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $1.5 billion, compared with a decrease of $4.1 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $3.4 billion, in contrast to an increase of $16.4 billion.

Wait a minute.  I thought that income was flat?  We have a decrease, a decrease, a decrease and a decrease.  How do we get to flat with those?

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $0.1 billion in September, compared with an increase of $2.0 billion in August.

Proprietors' income increased $0.7 billion in September, compared with an increase of $3.4 billion in August. Farm proprietors' income decreased $1.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $1.2 billion.  Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $2.3 billion, compared with an increase of $4.6 billion.

Rental income of persons increased $5.4 billion in September, compared with an increase of $5.2 billion in August. Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) decreased $13.8 billion, the same decrease as in August.  Personal current transfer receipts increased $17.3 billion in September, compared with an increase of $9.6 billion in August.

Ah.

Small business income was down compared to August, rental incomes were basically flat (compared to prior month), but income receipts on assets (dividends + interest on assets) decreased.  Those are bad comps too.

The big Kahuna was government handouts, which was up big m/o/m.  There's the entry that kept PCI and DPI from collapsing.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.6 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 1.0 percent in August.

Consumers are not spending.

All in all, another bad report.  Not a disaster, but certainly not the stuff of which "economic recovery" is made.

The evidence continues to pile up......


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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