Stop Losses really can be an Achilles heel in trading, especially
day trading the leveraged move made in the forex arena, and every
trader wants to always find the ideal place to put them. There is no
direct, coverall answer to where, and in reality the correct stop may
require just as much work as the exact target placement. It is a shame
but there really is no easy fix to this, and relies as much on the time
that the trade is placed as well as the likely market momentum at that
time.
Market conditions dictate the depth that a stop needs to placed away
from an entry point; In current conditions, with a lot of volatility,
some stops may need to be at a 1:1 Risk to Rewards (in other words to
be risking 50 pips in an effort to gain 50 pips). As markets start to
trend, that may go to risking 30 pips to gain 60 pips, and the
Risk/Reward increases to 1:2. Over the course of a traded year the
average Risk/Reward will likely be between 1:1.5 to 1:2, with some
times of constant 1:1 risk/reward, and others with runs of 1:3.
To go with a 1:1 Risk/Reward a trader obviously needs to have more
than 50% winning trades to get above break-even. With a 1:2 Risk/Reward
a Trader can be right 50% of the time and still be very profitable.
Therefore market conditions are incredibly important, as is the need to
work on money management. A stop area needs to be found first, and then
the amount of lots traded worked from that pip count.
For example; if a trader commits no more than 2% of their $10k
account balance on any one trade, they have a risk exposure of $200. If
the Stop area is 20 pips away they can trade 10 mini lots ($200 divided
by 20 pips). A stop that needs to be 50 pips away, because of market
mechanics equates to 4 mini lots ($200 divided by 50 pips). Downloadable Excel Stop/Risk Calculator
In current conditions, with the need to have bigger stops because of
the thin volume and a tendency to whipsaw before committing, it is
important to start with the target area. Ask yourself how realistic
really is the amount that you are aiming for? Your entry must be
breaking some kind of previous support or resistance to generate
momentum to get you as quickly to the target as possible. If it is
realistic, and for example 50 Pips away from the entry, then you may
need to allow up to 50 pips as a Stop.
Take stock of the weekly moves that this pair makes, and compare
that to the daily trading range (deduct the high from the low).
Understand that if a pair moves 80 pips each day on average, that to
set a target that tries to capture all of that may be very difficult in
one go.