Northlake clients own DirecTV (DTV) through their position in
Liberty Media Entertainment (LMDIA). LMDIA owns 54% of DTV. DTV will
acquire LMDIA prior to year end in a transaction that has already
received all necessary government approvals. LMDIA shares will convert
into DTV shares. LMDIA shareholders will also receive shares in a new
company called Starz Entertainment. I am bullish on both DTV and Starz.
DirecTV (DTV) is expected to report 3Q09 EPS of 39 cents on revenues
of $5.42 billion. EBITDA is projected at $1.39 billion. One of the most
impressive things about DTV is that the company is continuing to grow
right through the recession. On a year-over-year basis, revenue is
projected to be up 8.7%, EBITDA up 11.2%, and EPS up 21.2%. EPS gets an
extra boost form very aggressive share buybacks that have been in place
for several years.
Growth remains because DTV remains a share gainer in multichannel
TV. Gross adds this quarter should again be over 1 million subscribers.
Churn may tick up a few basis points but net subscriber additions will
still be up by 140,000. This compares to flat to lower net adds for
cable and is not far off the gains already reported by AT&T (T) and
Verizon (VZ). Keep in mind that Telco TV subs number in the millions
while DTV has over 18 million subscribers.
Besides the headline financial and subscriber numbers, I think the
focus of the call will be on ARPU. Last quarter, DTV guided 2009 ARPU
growth lower by 100 basis points (note that ARPU in 2009 is still
projected to be up about 2%) and the stock traded poorly despite an
otherwise good quarter. The culprit was cautious spending on extras
like pay per view and premium tiers. Analysts indicate that ARPU trends
have stabilized.
There will also likely be some discussion of use of free cash flow
once the Liberty Media Entertainment (LMDIA) merger closes later this
year. Presently, DTV is unable to buyback shares. I have every
expectation that share repurchases will resume at their prior level.
A final topic that could come up on the call is DirecTV Latin
America. There is speculation that the company may spin-off the fast
growing division. Analysts may also question the intensifying
competitive environment in Mexican multichannel TV with cable companies
and Telmex battling for market share.
Disclosure: T and LMDIA are widely held by clients of
Northlake Capital Management, LLC including in Steve Birenberg's
personal accounts.