Picking your next natural gas play isn't so easy anymore. . . or is it?
Back in March, we saw the first real buying opportunity for oil and gas stocks. At the time, nearly everyone I came across was in the trenches. Every company was either at or approaching a 52-week low.
I wasn't kidding when I suggested that those stocks were a screaming buy. Most of you agreed. Since then, energy stocks have taken off. And I'm not talking about a few gains here or there. . .
Unfortunately, not everyone agreed.
I remember one reader in particular who didn't pull any punches. Yet after asking him whether or not he was taking advantage of that buying opportunity, he adamantly refused.
His reason?
He was too afraid to trade.
Right now, he's probably looking for a DeLorean and a bolt of lightning — flux capacitor and all.
If you were on board with us at the time, you made an absolute killing with your energy trades.
But let's face it: my hesitant readers shouldn't be looking back with regret. And this gentleman comes to mind because he recently sent me an e-mail. This time, however, he was less cynical when asking how I felt about getting back into natural gas.
And you should be able to guess what my sentiment on the matter was in my e-mail, and is today, as I write this. . .
U.S. Natural Gas
Last week, Baker Hughes Inc. reported the number of oil and gas rigs operating in the U.S. has increased to 1,069. If you're keeping track, that's 21 more rigs than the previous week. That number compares to 1,600 rigs drilling in September 2008.
Then again, if there were that many rigs operating right now, I'd be more than worried. And one glance at the latest EIA natural gas storage report would have you worried, too. . .
Take a look for yourself:
As you can see, inventory numbers are still rising. The last increase of 25 Bcf puts our working gas in underground storage at 3,759 Bcf. Although natural gas is currently trading around $5/Mcf, we're still a far cry from 2008 price levels.
Don't worry, we're not holding our breath for natural gas costing $14/Mcf anytime soon.
Once the cold weather kicks in, people will start turning the heat on and up. It might not be the massive demand spike the bulls would love to see, but couple the heating season with more industrial demand and prices could easily reach $6/Mcf.
Natural Gas Trading
So where to look when investing?
It's no secret that we're sticking with what works.