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Banks, Bucks, And Buffett
By: David D. Moenning   Tuesday, November 03, 2009 9:26 AM

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Good morning. The recent wild ride on Wall Street continued yesterday as the Dow's swing of 181 points intraday definitely kept everyone on their toes. And while the focus in the market had been all about the earnings reports and whether or not Corporate America could deliver some top-line growth, it now appears that the focus has shifted to the charts of the dollar and the banks.

Stocks enjoyed a nice pop out of the gate yesterday on the back of more good economic news out of China, where the PMI grew at the fastest rate in eight years. The bulls then wasted little time in celebrating some good news here at home as the reports from the ISM Manufacturing Index as well as Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending all came in well above expectations. And with the better economic news came some selling in the dollar. Thus, before you could reload the coffee pot, the DJIA was enjoying gains of nearly 150 points and it looked like the bulls had relocated their mojo.

But from there a one-two punch in the financial sector and some issues on the charts created the rollercoaster ride that was Monday's session. First, there was Citi (C) breaking down below important support and second, there was testimony from Jon Greenlee, warning about banks' potential losses from commercial real-estate loans. (In case the name isn't familiar, Greenlee is the director of the Fed's Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation.) It will suffice to say that the two caused a problem for both the banks and the market in general.

Among other things, Greenlee said that "Poor loan quality, subpar earnings, and uncertainty about future conditions raise questions about capital adequacy for some institutions." He then added, "The condition of the banking system is far from robust. Two years into a substantial economic downturn, loan quality is poor across many asset classes and, as noted earlier, continues to deteriorate as weakness in housing markets affects the performance of residential mortgages and construction loans."

The renewed worry about the banks triggered a midday reversal, which was highlighted by a swoon of 130 Dow points in less than an hour. The dance to the downside was, of course, accompanied by a corresponding rise in the dollar as these two asset classes remain inversely joined at the hip at the present time. And speaking of the dollar, the joke making the rounds is that like it or not, these days everyone is now a currency trader.

The bulls will tell you that the afternoon rebound was an encouraging sign. After all, the bears had their chance to really have a big inning, but couldn't get it done. Yet on the other side of the aisle, our friends in fur point to the fact that the S&P and NASDAQ couldn't move above their respective 50-day moving averages, which is a precursor of bad things to come.

Turning to this morning, we've got lots of inputs but nothing on the economic front. First, Australia's central bank raised rates again. And while the move was not unexpected, it does heighten the expectations for the Fed to start talking about an exit strategy. Next, there are "issues" across the pond with Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland in terms of needing government assistance as well earnings problems from UBS (UBS).

But, we've got some good news as well as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has decided to purchase Burlington Northern (BNI) for $100, which is a 31.5% premium from last night's closing price.

Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are mostly lower with Europe having a bad day. Crude futures are moving down with the latest quote showing oil trading off by $0.83 to $77.30. On the interest rate front, we've got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.41%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.05%. And in looking at currencies, it appears the dollar is stronger at the moment – and we all know what that means. Finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a lower open. The Dow futures are currently off by about 60 points; the S&P's are down by about 7 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 11 points below fair value at the moment.

Yesterday's Earnings After The Bell
 

Company

Symbol

EPS
Reuters
Estimate
Anadarko Petroleum APC -$0.11 -$0.34
Avis Budget Group CAR $0.65 $0.44
Chesapeake Energy CHK $0.70 $0.65
Kinross Gold KGC $0.00 $0.12
Kindred Healthcare KND $0.14 $0.03
Principal Financial Group PFG $0.57 $0.65
Republic Services RPG $0.39 $0.37
Hanover Insurance THG $0.89 $0.98

Earnings Before The Bell
 

Company

Symbol

EPS
Reuters
Estimate
AmerisourceBergen ABC $0.44 $0.40
Archer-Daniels ADM $0.77 $0.57
American Tower AMT $0.17 $0.17
Cameron Intl CAM $0.58 $0.52
Rockwell Collins COL $0.93 $0.87
Cognizant Technology CTSH $0.45 $0.41
Emerson EMR $0.67 $0.60
Frontier Communications FTR $0.17 $0.16
IntercontinentalExchange ICE $1.18 $1.15
MasterCard MA $3.48 $2.93
Medco Health MHS $0.75 $0.72
Royal Caribbean RCL $1.07 $1.01
Rowan Companies RDC $0.54 $0.52
Polo Ralph Lauren RL $1.75 $1.31
Tenet Healthcare THC -$0.01 -$0.02
Viacom VIA.B $0.69 $0.57

* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable

Wall Street Research Summary

Upgrades:

  • AstraZeneca (AZN) – BofA/Merrill
  • AvalonBay (AVB) – BofA/Merrill
  • ValueClick (VCLK) - Citi
  • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) – Credit Suisse
  • Overseas Shipholding (OSG) – FBR Capital
  • Ford (F) – Target increased at Goldman
  • Tenaris (TS) – Jefferies
  • Linear Technology (LLTC) – Morgan Stanley
  • Maxim Integrated (MXIM) – Morgan Stanley
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – Initiated Buy at UBS
  • Best Buy (BBY) – Initiated Buy at UBS
  • Home Depot (HD) – Initiated Buy at UBS
  • Lowe's (LOW) – Initiated Buy at UBS
  • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) – Initiated Buy at UBS
  • AutoZone (AZO) – Initiated Buy at UBS

    Downgrades:

  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) – BofA/Merrill
  • Affiliated Managers (AMG) – Goldman
  • Altera (ALTR) – Morgan Stanley
  • Intel (INTC) – Morgan Stanley
  • Micron (MU) – Morgan Stanley
  • Xilinx (XLNX) – Morgan Stanley
  • Nvidia (NVDA) – Morgan Stanley
  • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) – Morgan Stanley
  • Novellus (NVLS) – Morgan Stanley
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) – Target reduced at Morgan Stanley

     

    Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, VRX, GEO, VCLK, GSK


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    The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
      
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