logo

Berkshire's Big Bet
By: Karl Denninger   Tuesday, November 03, 2009 11:51 AM

Vote for next session
The next market session will close:

The amusing part of Berkshire buying BNI (Burlington Northern) isn't that he's doing it at what looks to be a ridiculous premium to the current stock price (although below the historic high) - it is that he's splitting Berkshire's "B" shares in doing it.

Remember, this is the guy who has maintained forever that stock splits are inherently wrong, in that they're nothing other than a game.

Well, yes.  But under the cover of the claim that he wants BNI shareholders to "enjoy" a tax-free exchange, suddenly Berkshire "gets religion" and splits the "B" shares 50:1?

Uh, Warren.  This is a stock and cash deal, right?  What prevented you from issuing a "C" share?  Nothing, other than dilution, which you could handle with an immediate buyback of the outstanding amount necessary to balance it.

Here's my view, for what it's worth - BNI at yesterday's closing price was reasonably valued at a P/E of 14.  At the deal price it's about 20.  That's too high, unless you believe that manufacturing is coming home in massive numbers, and that "indefinite growth" is coming back.

I think Warren's wrong on valuation.  I also think he should have bought BNI back in March, when the stock price was under $51, and paid $70, which would have been an even bigger premium in percentage terms and been a better deal for Berkshire shareholders:

Here's Berkshire's "B" share chart (the "A" is the same, just bigger numbers):

If you're a BNI shareholder, I'd be taking the money - this morning.  You're no longer the owner of a big industrial mover; you're now the owner of stock in what amounts to a financial conglomerate trading with a P/E of 52 (as of this morning), where you had a P/E of 14 last night.  Worse, Berkshire's market cap is being "invaded" tremendously by this acquisition, turning Berkshire from a financial company (in the main; banking and insurance) into a multi-line conglomerate with a HUGE transportation component.

Mean reversion is going to suck WHEN it occurs, and this much is certain - you didn't own BNI expecting it to have a P/E of 52, but suddenly it does, and anyone who believes that a conglomerate with 25% of it's total market cap comprised of "railroad" should trade at anywhere near a P/E of 52 has rocks in their head.

Buffett's comment: "This is a bet on the future of the country, 5, 10, 20 years from now."

That's Berkshire's and Buffett's mantra, and in addition this is a bet that rails will be the big winner over time in terms of moving products in a world that is increasingly hamstrung by both energy constraints and (in my view insane) "global warming" nonsense. 

I think Warren is right on who wins in the transportation matrix in the future, but he doesn't care about multiples. 

I, as an investor, do.

If I owned either of these firms (I don't) I'd be a seller this morning into the ramp job, especially if I held BNI.  Nobody in their right mind trades a P/E of 14 for a P/E of 52.

Disclosure: No position.


(0)
No Comments
Post Comment
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
   
 
 
 
 
   
 

The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
Advertisement
Popular Articles
Related Press Releases
Partner Center
Recent Articles by Karl Denninger



Subscribe to Email Alerts rss feed or RSS feeds rss feed for articles from more than 500 contributors, press releases, SEC filings and full text news from more than four thousand sources.
Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia