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A Statistical Economic Recovery - Is America's Recession Really Over?
By: Saving To Invest   Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:05 PM

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As Mark Twain once said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." To me, this nicely sums up recent economic figures that suggest America has escaped the clutches of another great depression and is on the way to a sustained recovery. Government reports say that GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter compared with the second. This was the first increase since the second quarter of 2008. However, as GDP grew consumers grew more skeptical as indicated by a fall in the consumer confidence index. A poll in The Economist found that 35% of respondents think the economy is getting worse; just 28% think it is getting better. Unemployment is still rising, and even a White House adviser, Christina Romer, predicts it will remain "severely elevated" throughout next year.

A lot of the third-quarter GDP growth was the result of temporary government stimulus like the cash for clunkers and new home buyer tax credits (which were recently extended into 2010). Consumer spending grew by 3.4%, the best since early 2007, largely because people were buying new cars in July and August under the CARS and new car tax deduction programs. Sales have since fallen back. Residential construction leapt by 23.4%, the first advance since the end of 2005, helped by an $8,000 tax credit for buyers of new homes. But new-home sales dipped by 3.6% in September, as the deadline to qualify for the credit loomed. Of course the statistics the government and Obama administration officials discuss are the positive ones.

Similarly, the Obama administration released the most detailed information yet on the jobs created by the stimulus. Of the 640,239 jobs recipients claimed to have created or saved so far, officials said, more than half — 325,000 — were in education. Most were teachers' jobs that states said were saved when stimulus money averted a need for layoffs. Yet many have cited the high unemployment figure, at 9.8 percent, as proof of the failure of the stimulus, which they voted overwhelmingly opposed.


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