Market Jumps Back Over 50 Day Moving Average As Investors Predict More Easy Money
By:
TraderMark Wednesday, November 04, 2009 11:38 AM
ISM Services came out
this morning; unlike ISM Manufacturing on Monday which is just a fraction of our "new paradigm" economy (12%ish) - investors still seem to pay far less attention to services... as if we're in America 1964. Meanwhile, services is now the dominant part of the US economy so should be the focus. Again, taking *any* government data with huge grains of salt, ISM Services came in below expectation (yet still slightly expansionary) but the market could care less.
- Service industries in the U.S. grew in October at a slower pace than anticipated, a sign growing joblessness may restrain consumer spending. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non- manufacturing businesses fell to 50.6 from 50.9 in September. The index was projected to increase to 51.5, according to the median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
3 key points under the headline number- new orders, employment, and prices paid.
- (1) The ISM non-manufacturing gauge of new orders increased to 55.6, the highest level in two years, from 54.2 the prior month. (that's a positive) (2) The index of employment dropped to 41.1, the lowest level since May, from 44.3. (that's a negative, at least if you think jobs matter) (3) A measure of prices paid climbed to 53 from 48.8. (and that folks, is inflation and an offshoot of a weak dollar - bringing products into the country is getting expensive which will squeeze profits)
- Mounting unemployment may mean consumer spending will only accelerate with government assistance, indicating the emerging recovery may lose momentum as stimulus fades.
I am now at the point I am wondering if the speculator class would prefer bad news or good - I think they might prefer
bad. Why? Because bad news means more and more easy money for as far as the eye can see. Now that we've "stabilized", good news is no longer "good" ... it was "good" for a while because it showed that paper printing prosperity (P cubed) could take us back from the abyss. But now good news will mean the potential end of free money and an economy that has to somehow stand on its own. And what is America without free money? (
Jun 3, 2009: A Country that Cannot Function Without Easy Money) We're years away from that point...
The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect
iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you
regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event
iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without
limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage
whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this
information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment
decision.