A: Just wanted to provide some recent thoughts on the marketplace as seen through this broker/blogger's eyes.
The Real Deal reports that "buyer are back to more rational behaviors":
A year after the financial crisis, Manhattan real estate brokers report that the market is finally returning to normal. But they don't mean the lightning-fast sales and skyrocketing prices of the recent real estate boom. They're talking about a more moderate, predictable real estate market, the likes of which hasn't been seen in Manhattan for years.
"The last three years have been very interesting," said Jill Bane, an associate at Leslie J. Garfield & Co. Before the market cratered as a result of the subprime crisis, "prices were very high and there always seemed to be several competing bids," she said.
Now, however, "a sense of normalcy has returned to the market," said Bane. Bane represented a townhouse at 17 Bank Street, on the market for $10.5 million, that recently went into contract. "People are buying; they are just not as irrational as the prior two to three seasons."
In the wake of the financial crisis, the last few quarters have been characterized by unpredictable swings in activity. The fall of 2008 saw the market at a virtual standstill; spring began to thaw, and summer -- normally one of the slowest seasons of the year -- brought an unusual frenzy of sales.
By contrast, the level of activity this fall seems to be relatively normal, settling back into its predictable seasonal pattern. Brokers, upbeat as always, say prices are at or close to their lowest point.
My opinion on today's market is fairly simple. There was a surge in activity as prices fell far enough to peak buyers interest; this surge lasted about 4 months (May-Aug) or so and saw monthly contracts signed volume similar to peak levels in 2007. Over the last month or two volume declined a bit to more normal levels. Properties that are priced correctly for their price point, are trading.
Inventory levels seem to be muddling in the mid 9,000s; although my new data source has it closer to the 10,300 level. My business the past few months has been on the stronger side.
I still believe that we have 1 or 2 more quarters of positive reports ahead of us, as deals in the pipeline close. These reports will be compared to beaten down reports in the same period one year earlier and likely provide support for broker statements that the market has indeed bottomed and is on the path to recovery.
My opinion on that topic is a bit different.
