As a trader or investor, you know that keeping a cool head whether the
markets are on fire or flaming out is key to your success.
Yet, when havoc is wreaked on your portfolio, it's altogether too easy
to forget not only that you've probably endured worse, but also how you
might have failed or even managed to prevail in similar conditions.
Whether you're experiencing market deja vu or you're encountering an
unfamiliar situation for the first time (or, the first time you're
going to triumph in a particular market condition), it's important to
strike the right balance between consistency and flexibility.
Examine, Re-examine Your Stance on Your Stocks
Unlike in politics and religion, dogmatic opinions about the stock market rarely result in success.
As investors, we cannot afford the luxury of a fixed point of view. In
the same vein, we must avoid extremist viewpoints, whether too bullish
or bearish.
The greatest investors are usually great realists. They have the
ability to strip away emotion, dogma and their own personal prejudice
when evaluating global events and their impact on financial markets
Perfect timing is a myth. Having a strong handle on the overall trend
is a far-more-important skill. If the longer-term trend is intact, then
short-term losses are just that: short term.
That's why I don't panic if a stock doesn't go my way right away -- so
long as the company's management and business are still sound (if I'm
bullish) or crumbling to pieces (if I'm bearish).
With stocks that I am long, I know that if I'm right on the larger
macro view, and the company is a key player in the space -- barring
corporate malfeasance or natural disaster -- THE STOCK MUST TRADE
HIGHER .. regardless of, and maybe even in spite of, the rest of the
market.
(At) Home on the Range
The market despises extremes; it's most comfortable when it's "middling."
Sixty-eight percent of the time, the market trades within one standard
deviation of the mean on the bell curve. Knowing this gives us
fantastic perspective when we see the market overly stretched in one
direction or the other.
Like water always seeking the lowest point, the market is always
seeking the "mean" and it will always revert back to the middle of its
trading range.
Remember, too, that today's dog group is tomorrow's star group --
ALWAYS! That is why a strong understanding of sector rotation is so
important.
Just like women's fashions, stocks rotate in and out of favor. It can
be somewhat comical how predictable these rotations can be. Whatever
we're seeing now, will be coming around again ...