It's amazing how sometimes when there is a decision to be made between bullish & bearish the market appears to have a collective mind … but avoids the decision for as long as it can. We have had a pretty deep recovery in the Dollar, very close to confirming a larger reversal higher but not quite enough to tip the odds in favour of continued strength. Equally, I recognized the risk of the moves which we saw in the European currencies... and just a little more than I had though … but not quite enough to push the Dollar back over the bearish cliff.

This does happen quite frequently in many time frames and it's just a bit frustrating not being able to state with any total confidence what will happen next. However, the benefit of these instances is that we have some fairly good levels that confirm - or deny – both bullish and bearish structures.

If I have any preference it is still for Dollar losses merely from the perspective that it failed to really provide any technical evidence of completion and reversal in the downtrend. What's more it didn't reach targets. However, there is no rule that dictates that it should. It just so happens that probably 9 times out of 10 it does do this.

So I'll hang my hat ever so cautiously on the bearish hook but knowingly looking over my shoulder at the alternative. If you are talking risk and reward then the Dollar bullish side has far more to go – possibly to 1.40-1.42 EURUSD while the downside target lies at a relatively closer 1.52 EURUSD.

So bear this in mind as we start the day and be aware of the break levels I'll outline in the analysis.

Elsewhere, USDJPY had a positive day and I'm happy with the call. Directionally it seems headed higher but I do find the structure of the rally less than convincing. Therefore we still need to take care…

Today's free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday's trade set ups (+0 pips) and the new review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report.