I'm
often asked my view on the best way to play the current runup in gold,
and typically my answer to that question includes a suggestion to look
at silver.
Silver has long been called "the poor man's gold," and in the
safe-haven trade since the start of 2009, its price has appreciated
nearly 60 percent, though there have been a lot of ups and downs along
the way. Over the same period, the price of gold has risen about 25
percent to an all-time high, also with a fair bit of volatility.
At the beginning of the year, the gold-silver price ratio was 79 to
1βit would take 79 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. As of
yesterday's close of $1,090 per ounce for gold, that ratio was down to
62 to 1. This narrowing trend might be seen as a negative for silver,
but that's not necessarily the case.
This week, I saw a technical article from Lorimer Wilson on
Financial Sense University's Web site pointing out that, over the past
five years, the gold-silver ratio has ranged from 43.6 to 1 in April
2006 to 84.4 to 1 in October 2008, and that the 28-year support line is
58 to 1.
Applying the five-year ratio range at yesterday's closing gold price
would yield a silver price range of $25 per ounce (+43 percent from
yesterday's close) to $12.91 per ounce (-26 percent). The 28-year
support line suggests a silver price of $18.79 per ounce, which is 7.5
percent higher than yesterday's close.