logo

Official Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%; Reality Is Far Higher
By: TraderMark   Friday, November 06, 2009 10:37 AM

Vote for next session
The next market session will close:

I am not going to break down the full unemployment data because like much of our government reporting it is "garbage in, garbage out" and "you can't handle the truth" mixed together.  If you are newer to the website please peruse these entries during spare time this weekend
  1. (Oct 2, 2009: True September Unemployment in America Reaches Towards 14%; Our System is Broken).
  2. (Apr 3, 2009: Real March Unemployment Rate Reaches 12.5%) <---last time I reviewed all the inaccuracies of the report
  3. (Apr 2, 2008: The Underemployment Rate is Rising)  
  4. (Jan 27, 2008: Monthly Jobs Report & Birth Death Model)
  5. (May 10, 2008: Finally Some Mainstream Reporters are Figuring Out the "Spin" from Government)

     
But I want to point out a few key metrics and conclusions.  First, the politicos (both parties) have changed our metrics since the early 90s.  You will hear today that the unemployment rate is the worse it has been in 26 years; that is inaccurate.  As best as I can "retrofit" the measurement today, in an apples to apples comparison, if we measured unemployment as we did in the late 70s, early 80s we'd be somewhere in the mid teens.  It's been roughly a 4% spread over the old ways we used, i.e. we've been understating by about 4%... so figure 14.2% unemployment.

Second, this data actually comes from two reports - the downright scary thing is the second survey (household) shows the workforce shrunk again.  Recall, in America if you don't look for a job for 4 weeks you are no longer unemployed.  What we have seen in the past many months (and again this month) is a shrinkage in the labor force.  This has held DOWN the unemployment rate.  When people actually begin to believe there are jobs to be had they will go out searching which will immediately move them from "nowhere to be found in America's statistics" back to "unemployed" pushing up the unemployment RATE.  I thought this is what happened today as the rate jumped 0.4%.  But lo and behold, the unemploymentr rate surged EVEN as the workforce shrunk.  Again... scary.

Third, other key metrics...

Next Page >>12

(0)
No Comments
Post Comment
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
   
 
 
 
 
   
 

The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
Advertisement
Popular Articles
Related Press Releases
Advertisement
Partner Center
Recent Articles by TraderMark



Subscribe to Email Alerts rss feed or RSS feeds rss feed for articles from more than 500 contributors, press releases, SEC filings and full text news from more than four thousand sources.
Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia