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Official Unemployment Rate Hits 10.2%; Reality Is Far Higher
By:
TraderMark
Friday, November 06, 2009 10:37 AM
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I am not going to break down the full unemployment data because like much of our government reporting it is "garbage in, garbage out" and "you can't handle the truth" mixed together. If you are newer to the website please peruse these entries during spare time this weekend
(
Oct 2, 2009: True September Unemployment in America Reaches Towards 14%; Our System is Broken
).
(
Apr 3, 2009: Real March Unemployment Rate Reaches 12.5%
) <---last time I reviewed all the inaccuracies of the report
(
Apr 2, 2008: The Underemployment Rate is Rising
)
(
Jan 27, 2008: Monthly Jobs Report & Birth Death Model
)
(
May 10, 2008: Finally Some Mainstream Reporters are Figuring Out the "Spin" from Government
)
But I want to point out a few key metrics and conclusions. First, the politicos (both parties) have changed our metrics since the early 90s. You will hear today that the unemployment rate is the worse it has been in 26 years; that is inaccurate. As best as I can "retrofit" the measurement today, in an apples to apples comparison, if we measured unemployment as we did in the late 70s, early 80s we'd be somewhere in the mid teens. It's been roughly a 4% spread over the old ways we used, i.e. we've been understating by about 4%... so figure 14.2% unemployment.
Second, this data actually comes from two reports - the downright scary thing is the second survey (household) shows the workforce shrunk again. Recall, in America if you don't look for a job for 4 weeks you are no longer unemployed. What we have seen in the past many months (and again this month) is a shrinkage in the labor force. This has held DOWN the unemployment rate. When people actually begin to believe there are jobs to be had they will go out searching which will immediately move them from "nowhere to be found in America's statistics" back to "unemployed" pushing up the unemployment RATE. I thought this is what happened today as the rate jumped 0.4%. But lo and behold, the unemploymentr rate surged EVEN as the workforce shrunk. Again... scary.
Third, other key metrics...
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