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Consumer Credit: Awful
By: Karl Denninger   Friday, November 06, 2009 4:33 PM

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Where are my green shoots?

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the third quarter of 2009.  Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 10 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent.  In September, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent.

Yuck.

Here's the graphical representation.

Nothing good in here.  The non-revolving flattened out some in September (gee, you think "cash for clunkers" might have influenced August and September?) but revolving credit - that is, credit cards - continues its base jump without any appreciable change in slope.

Here's the longer-term view:

We are a credit-based system, as are all modern monetary systems.   No meaningful economic recovery can or will occur until the consumer has purged his balance sheet of the inappropriate debt he has and is once again able to earn and borrow.

If we supposedly exited the recession on or before September, it sure isn't apparent in this report.  You can put a fork in that line of garbage - it's done.

PS: The next update of the Z1, due out in a couple of months, should be interesting..... especially the "Ponzi Finance" indicator....


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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