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US Employment Picture Remains Ugly
By: The Fundamental Analyst   Saturday, November 07, 2009 9:52 PM

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US non-farm payrolls fell a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October whilst prior months had positive revisions. August was revised from -201k to -154k whilst September was revised from -263k to -219k. The 3 month moving average of monthly job losses fell below 200k for the first time since September 2008. Details of the establishment survey were as follows:

Construction -62,000
Manufacturing -61,000
Service providing -61,000
Retail trade -40,000
Professional and business services -18,000
Education and health services +45,000
Leisure and hospitality -37,000
Government 0

Positive revisions to prior months are good news, however that's about where the good news in this report ends.

Since employment peaked in December 2007, 7.3 million US jobs have been lost amounting to 5.3% of the workforce and given the preliminary estimate of a further -824k for the annual revision to be announced in January, that number will likely to exceed 8 million. The chart above tells the full gruesome story, the current employment cycle has seen the deepest plunge in jobs since WWII.

The unemployment rate jumped to a seasonally adjusted 10.2% in October, the highest rate since April 1983. U6, which includes so-called discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, rose to a new record of 17.5%. Of course the unemployment rate is measured by the household survey which is different from the establishment survey used to calculate the non-farm payroll number.


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