Are the United States, Japan, Great Britain, and other first-world nations in danger of defaulting on their debt?

In my latest NEWSWEEK column, I suggested that the unthinkable had become thinkable: some advanced society—say, the United States, Spain, Italy, Japan, or Great Britain—might someday default on its government debt. It wouldn't pay its creditors all they were owed or wouldn't pay them on time. Just a few days later, and completely coincidentally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report that, without saying so, added credence to this unsettling hypothesis. (Click here to follow Robert J. Samuelson).

The report, done by IMF staff economists, comes with the forbidding title "The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009." And it isn't much fun to read, because it's full of tables, charts, and various ratios. But the central conclusions, buttressed strongly by all the statistics, are simple enough: the economic and financial crisis has dramatically increased the deficits and debt of most countries, and many wealthy countries are in worse shape than major developing nations.

The economic crisis both increased spending—mainly through government "stimulus" packages and bailouts for the financial system—and devastated tax revenues.