logo

Is Bad News Good Again?
By: David D. Moenning   Monday, November 09, 2009 9:34 AM

Vote for next session
The next market session will close:

Good morning. Let's see a show of hands if you thought Friday's news that the Unemployment Rate jumped to 10.2% would wind up being a good thing for stocks. And no, you don't get to use hindsight or think about it for a while. No, I'm looking for your immediate reaction to the news. If you are anything like me, I'm guessing that you probably didn't yell, "Buy ‘em!" Instead, most people probably went with something more along the lines of "Wow, that doesn't sound good."

The government and economists alike have been warning us for a while now that we should expect to see the unemployment rate hit 10% or higher before things started to improve. After all, the unemployment rate is indeed a lagging indicator and everybody knows that the jobs market has been more than a little weak. And with the rate sitting at 9.832% as of the end of September, it probably wouldn't have been terribly surprising to see the rate move up to 9.9% or maybe even 9.95%. But 10.2% – now that was surprising.

Logic would seem to dictate that the unemployment rate skipping right over 9.9%, 10.0%, and instead leaping straight to 10.2% (the highest rate in more than 26 years) would be viewed as a negative. And sure enough, the Dow did drop 70 points or so in the first five minutes of trading. But from there, a funny thing happened on the way to the Bears' victory party. Somebody, somewhere figured out that the news was actually a good thing for the "risk trade" that has become so popular these days.

About the only good thing you can say about the jobs report, besides the fact that the job losses are continuing to be "less bad" each month, is that an unemployment rate of 10.2% will surely keep the Fed from commencing with any discussions of "exit strategies" or higher rates for some time yet. Almost immediately after the report was released, we started to hear speculation about how many months this report would keep the Fed on the sidelines, with the consensus coming in somewhere between three and six. Thus, it would appear that we might be coming into a market where bad news is actually a good thing again.

What this means is that it's "Party on, Wayne" for anyone involved with the Dollar Carry Trade (meaning just about everyone in the hedge fund industry around the world). With the job market as weak as it is and the economic recovery still in a fairly fragile state, traders realized that Mr. Bernanke isn't likely to start talking about increasing interest rates anytime soon. Therefore, the game of borrowing at 0% and investing in stocks, commodities and emerging markets, while at the same time, betting on a falling dollar, is still on.

So, while Nouriel Roubini may be expecting a "global market crash" when this "mother of all carry trades" begins to unwind, it looks like Dr. Doom may have to wait a while longer for his next big bear call to come to fruition.

Turning to this morning, we don't have any economic data to review before the bell. However, the markets have a positive tone as Asian markets closed up following a positive reaction to the G20 governments agreeing to maintain stimulus measures and European markets are up nicely across the pond.

Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, as we mentioned, the foreign markets are up across the board. Crude futures are higher with the latest quote showing oil trading up by $0.62 to $78.05. On the interest rate front, we've got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.51%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.05%. The U.S. Dollar is currently lower and finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a strong open. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 70 points; the S&P's are up by about 9 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 16 points above fair value at the moment.

Earnings Before The Bell
 

Company

Symbol

EPS
Reuters
Estimate
DISH Network DISH $0.18* $0.42
Nordic American Tanker NAT -$0.26 -$0.15
Rockwell Automation ROK $0.37 $0.27
Warner Chilcott WCRX $0.42 $0.41
Windstream WIN $0.18 $0.22

Wall Street Research Summary

Upgrades:

  • Shanda Interactive (SNDA) - Citi
  • Radio Shack (RSH) – Credit Suisse
  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Credit Suisse, Goldman
  • Hercules Offshore (HERO) – Credit Suisse
  • Questar (STR) – Goldman
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) – Goldman
  • WMS Industries (WMS) – Goldman
  • Adobe Systems (ADBE) – Goldman
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC) - Jefferies
  • AstraZeneca (AZN) – JP Morgan
  • Blackstone Group (BX) – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
  • Merck (MRK) – Leerink Swann
  • Energizer (ENR) – Morgan Stanley

     

    Downgrades:

  • Gap (GPS) – Barclays
  • Charles River Laboratories (CRL) – Barclays
  • Lexmark (LXK) – Added to Conviction Sell at Goldman
  • EOG Resources (EOG) - Goldman
  • Verisign (VRSN) – Goldman
  • Red Hat (RHT) – Goldman

     

    Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, RHT

    * Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable

    Remember, we are all in this together… And until next time, "may the bulls be with you!"


  • (0)
    No Comments
    Post Comment
    Name:  
    Alert for new comments:
    Your email:
    Your Website:
    Title:
    Comments:
       
     
     
     
     
       
     

    The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
      
    Advertisement
    Popular Articles
    Related Press Releases
    Partner Center
    Recent Articles by David D. Moenning



    Subscribe to Email Alerts rss feed or RSS feeds rss feed for articles from more than 500 contributors, press releases, SEC filings and full text news from more than four thousand sources.
    Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia