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New SP500 Highs Forecast By Fifth Sprung Bear Trap
By: Afraid to Trade   Monday, November 09, 2009 11:55 AM

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Well, folks, the bulls have done it again - it looks like buyers have sprung an amazing fifth Bear Trap in the last few months that - if recent history repeats - will lead to another new high in the S&P 500.

Let's take a look at the prior four traps that led to new highs:

What I'm showing is the daily S&P 500 from early June, 2009.

The highlighted regions represent the unyielding price rise (almost literally straight up for 8 or 9 days at a time) that came directly after a classic breaking of support via the 20 (or 50) period exponential moving average.

Generally, a break in a moving average triggers sell orders in the expectation that support is broken.

Stop-losses are placed above the entry (usually back above the average) and any sort of upward movement triggers a vicious cycle where stop-losses become "buy to cover" orders, further driving prices higher with buying pressure.

A Bear Trap is thus sprung when a valid or classic sell signal is generated and then price moves upwards into the ‘pocket' of stop-losses from the short-sellers.  To be a bear trap, a valid sell signal has to occur.

1.  The Head and Shoulders Pattern neckline was broken, in addition to price breaking under the 200 day SMA, generating a very powerful sell signal… that led to an even MORE powerful rally when the signal failed.

2.  A break of the 20 day EMA after a strong selling bar (down-day) triggered entry… and as price moved higher back above the 20 EMA, a flood of stop-losses helped drive the index higher four days in a row.

3.  Using the exact same logic as before, but this time the "Melt-Up" avalanche yielded almost 9 up-days in a row with only a one-day doji pause.

4.  This time price broke solidly on another strong selling bar under the 20 EMA, but technically supported off the confluence of the 50 day EMA and the lower Bollinger.  Still, the rise back above the 20 EMA coincided with another (almost) 9 day price rise with only a minor pause.

5.  It looks like it's happening again, in that a break of both the 20 and 50 day EMA triggered in more short-sellers… and now we're having their stop-losses taken out yet again which - if history since July is any guide - will lead to a new price high in the S&P 500.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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