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The Outlook For Oil Prices
By: Keith Kohl   Saturday, November 14, 2009 10:51 PM

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Welcome to the Energy and Capital Weekend Edition — our insights from the week in investing and this week's top stories from Energy and Capital and our sister publications.


What started out as relatively quiet week for oil prices turned out to be quite an interesting week for oil bulls:
  • On Monday, oil prices quickly rose above $80/bbl as Hurricane Ida moved into the Gulf of Mexico, despite being so late in the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm's effect didn't last long. By Tuesday, Ida was downgraded to a tropical storm, easing its threat on the oil and gas rigs operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

  • While nearly every oil producing state in the U.S. is struggling, North Dakota has managed to boost their production to more than 230,000 barrels per day. In fact, North Dakota has remained virtually untouched by the recession, due largely in part to this Recession-Proof Secret. If oil prices remain above $60 per barrel (a very likely scenario), the state's crude production is projected to reach 400,000 barrels within the next five years.

  • Putting further pressure on the oil industry, an alarming story was released by the Guardian on Tuesday. An unnamed whistleblower from the IEA stated that the U.S. has played an influential role in the IEA's data. In other words, the IEA has been distorting the rate of decline from existing oil fields. It appears that Peak Oil Reality has struck a new chord with the public.

  • Unfortunately, the news wasn't enough downplay a stronger dollar. As you can see, it's no coincidence that oil prices have been on a hot streak since early March:

  • What started out as a rally for the U.S. dollar on Wednesday and Thursday wasn't enough; Bloomberg reported on Friday the news that the dollar declined as a global economic recovery spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.

  • However, it's not just a dollar story. Asia has developed a craving for all things energy; China's oil demand is expected to pick up sharply in 2010 as an economic recovery picks up speed.

Below, my colleague Chris Nelder continues his reporting from the 2009 ASPO Peak Oil Conference.

But first, in case you missed some of our top stories this week from Energy and Capital or our sister publications, you can find them here.

Enjoy your weekend,


Can the Free Market Keep Us Safe?
— Chris Nelder

On Halloween day this year, I killed part of a beautiful afternoon at a local shooting range with a buddy. It had been quite a while since I did that, and I needed the practice.

(I know some of my gentle readers might find it a little shocking that a peace lovin' hippie like me would do target practice, but I was raised with it. My parents put us boys through the NRA's gun safety program at a fairly early age, before agreeing to take us hunting. Later I was certified to carry a weapon in the line of duty as a security officer. I've always had a healthy respect, if not real love, for guns.)

I was taken aback when I walked in the door at the nondescript, low industrial building. The place was packed. I could hardly find a place to stand and I waited about 15 minutes just to speak to a clerk. The registers were ringing constantly, taking in $100-$300 totals at a whack. Where I come from, we call that a gonga business.

The gun business has been strong this year, without a doubt. Guns have been flying off the shelves and ammo shortages have been common (and surrounded by conspiracy theories).

Unfortunately, most gun makers are small private companies that make high specification steel, leaving Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ: SWHC) as one of the few good tradeable stocks in the sector.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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