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As Stimulus Spending Winds Down, Will U.S. Businesses Step in For Tapped-Out Consumers?
By: Money Morning   Wednesday, November 18, 2009 11:03 AM

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(By Don Miller) It's no secret that government spending has been fueling much of the growth in the $14.2 trillion U.S. economy. And if consumers aren't ready for the handoff when that stimulus spending winds down – and they certainly don't appear to be – it will be up to the U.S. business sector to carry the ball.

And it's not at all clear that Corporate America is ready, willing or able to fulfill that role.

For one thing, companies just aren't hiring en masse. That means the current economic rebound is actually a "jobless recovery," and could be vulnerable to unforeseen shocks, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told an audience during a speech in Phoenix, Ariz, earlier this month.

"Unemployment could stay high for several years to come," Yellen said during the speech that was given less than a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at near zero. "High unemployment, weak job growth and paltry wage increases are a recipe for sluggish consumer spending growth and a tepid recovery."

U.S. Businesses Throttle Back on Spending Plans

Even though a recently released government report showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter, 75% of economists polled in a separate survey concluded that the gross domestic product (GDP) number will be revised downward in the future. The key reason for that belief: The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to keep rising in the new year, heightening the prospects of a jobless recovery.

Small businesses, which employ more than half of all private-sector workers – and which have generated 64% of all new jobs over the past 15 years – are not even close to picking up the slack.

In fact, 16% of small-business owners surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business said they are planning to cut jobs in the next three months – nearly double the number of those planning to add jobs.

"The ‘job generating machine' is still in reverse," the federation said.

A survey of 1,537 chief financial officers in the latest Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey showed that most large U.S. companies do not plan to increase capital spending in the near future.

Furthermore, 56% of U.S. companies say they are still being adversely affected by credit-market conditions. Among those negatively affected, two-thirds say the cost of credit is their biggest problem, and half say credit is simply less available.


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