Firm notes they are downgrading their view on the sector given unfavorable indications from our cyclical framework suggesting a modest inventory correction, even in the face of improving electronic demand and a more constructive outlook for the global economies. They are also downgrading shares of INTC, TXN, MRVL, and LSI to Neutral, and MXIM, NSM, POWI and MCHP to Underperform. Merrill now rates a modest 5 stocks (BRCM, XLNX, ALTR, ADI and LLTC) as Buys within their coverage group (19 stocks in total).

In particular, Merrill's industry model suggests that following a normalization of semiconductor IC shipments to "true" consumption levels, inventories in the supply chain are approaching a level suggesting a modest overshoot vs. equilibrium levels, even after accounting for above consensus global GDP growth, and a smart recovery in global electronic systems sales into 2010. Thus, barring a sharp upturn in the global economy, their indicators point to the potential for an inventory correction, thus rendering the risk-reward associated with ownership of chip stocks unattractive.



In some ways, the firm thinks the current backdrop reflects a striking contrast to the conditions that prevailed at the time of Merrill's upgrade. Specifically, at the time, supply chain inventories were at abnormally depressed levels, economic forecasts were poised to improve but as yet depressed, and indications of an inflection in electronic demand had just started to manifest themselves. Fast forward two quarters, and the picture looks completely different. To wit economic growth forecasts have trended higher, as have expectations of electronic demand growth, and supply chain inventories are perking above what they'd consider to be a normal equilibrium level. Last but not the least, sentiment around growth prospects for the group has also seen a marked improvement. Simply put, the ideal mixture of investor skepticism coupled with the potential for sharp upward revisions – which served as potent fuel for the semiconductor rally – no longer prevails. This then begs the question: What is the incentive to own chip stocks, esp.