It looks like we are back to the fundamentals as concerns of economic recovery were exacerbated by a negative housing foreclosure update that confirmed the real estate crisis is spreading to the prime market. An economy bleeding jobs at a minimum monthly rate of 500k is the underlying cause.
The SPY closed at its
lowest level in 4 days and needs to maintain support @ 108.75 to avoid
further damage. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were amongst the
weakest sectors while Consumer Staples (XLP) and Healthcare (XLV) were
relatively the strongest. (See ETF Market Trends™ Monitor below.)
In the technology sector, Merrill Lynch/BAM downgraded almost anything that moves within the semiconductor industry. It was uglier than the St. Valentine's Day Massacre. The SMH exchange traded fund closed down -3.34%
on 62% greater than average volume. Still smarting from yesterday's
poor earnings results from
ADSK and
CRM was the software industry. The
SWH exchange traded fund was down -1.3% on 987% greater than average volume, a clear sign of capitulation.
Other areas of weakness within key industries existed in energy (OIH), materials (KOL, CUT), and transportation (SEA, FAA, IYT) industry related ETFs.
The U.S. dollar played its own supporting role in today's sell-off by suppressing commodity assets. UUP, the bullish U.S. dollar ETF, rose +0.31% vs. USO (down -2.48%), DBB (down -1.21%), and DBC (down -1.42%).
Meanwhile, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), behaved more like currencies or alternative stores of value against inflation
by ignoring the dollar's support and deviating from the price direction
of commodities. Both precious metals ETFs closed slightly positive.
In summary, there was plenty of collateral damage to equity trends today.
Some of the more notable casualties were the Russell 2000 (IWM), Energy
(XLE), Consumer Discretionary (XLP), Broker Dealers (IAI), Networking
(IGN), Transportation (IYT), Oil Services (OIH), and Semiconductors
(SMH).
Price Volume Analysis (PVA): Bears clearly dominated this session and scared the ____
(insert your favorite expletive) out of bulls. Capitulation (PDVU) was over 57%.
PUVU: price up & volume up (most bullish) @ 5.8%
PUVD: price up & volume down (indicative of distribution and selling into strength) @ 3.73%
PDVU: price down & volume up (contrarian bullish signal for capitulation and transfer of stocks from weaker hands) @ 57.13%
PDVD: price down and volume down (most bearish based upon lack of buyers to establish support) @ 31.93%
Bullish Events
Jobless Claims were in line
with expectations: 505k actual vs. 504 consensus. The 4-week average
declined 6.5k to 514k. Continuing Claims also fell 39k to 5.611mm. The
number of insured unemployed whose benefits were extended due to
expired benefits rose 17k to 540k. Emergency compensation benefits
increased 100k to 3.6mm claimants.
November's Philadelphia Fed index rose to 16.7 vs. consensus estimates @ 12.0 and previous month @ 11.5. New orders and shipments were the strongest components of the report.
Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, speaking in Singapore,
sees the US economy "on the mend" and strengthening in the upcoming
quarters. Although growth is not as robust as the Fed desires, he is
"less fearful" of incurring another recession than he was 3 months ago.
OECD revised growth forecasts for next year
for the combined economies of its 30-member countries to 1.9% vs.
previous forecast @ 0.7%; U.S. growth @ 2.5% vs. previous forecast @
0.9%; Euro-Zone growth @ 0.9% vs. previous forecasts @ 0.0%; Japan
growth @ 1.8% vs. 0.7% previous forecast; China growth @ 10.2% and even
greater acceleration in 2011 as it and other emerging countries lead
the global recovery.
- Positive Earnings Surprises: DKS, DCI, GME, NTAP, HP, KLIC, SHLD, SCMR, TSL, WSM, BKE, and STP.
- Positive Guidance: AMSC, PM
- Upgrades: Semiconductors (AMD); Retail (TGT, WFMI)
Bearish Events
- Delinquencies (up 9.64%) and foreclosures (up 4.47%)
set their 9th straight record in 3Q-2009 due to increasing job losses.
Unlike the early stages of the real estate meltdown, the crisis is now
spreading to the prime fixed rate market which now represents @ 1/3 or
all new foreclosures. The Mortgage Bankers Association indicated that @
4mm homeowners were either in foreclosure or 3 months behind in
payments during the month of September. FHA loans are also facing
trouble as 18% of the agency's borrowrers are in foreclosure or
delinquent at least one payment. California, Neveda, Arizona, and
Florida continue to represent ground zero in the real estate bubble
with 44% of all new foreclosures.
- Monthly changes in the Leading Indicators index for October
rose 0.3% vs. consensus estimates @ 0.4%. and previous month @ 1.0%.
Although the report is positive, the negative m/m rate of change points
to slower growth in the first half of next year.
- Natural Gas inventories
increased 20 bcf vs. previous week @ 25 bcf, according to the EIA.
Supplies are up 10% vs. last year and close to maximum storage @ 3.89
tcf (trillion cubic feet).
Forex: A higher priced dollar created downward pressure on commodity related assets.
Negative Earnings Surprises: CMED, NWY, SCHS
Negaive Guidance: ZUMZ, INTU, DKS, TDG, HOTT, JACK
Downgrades:
Technology (SPIL, UMC, TSM, ASX, ASML, ARMH, INTC, TXN, MRVL, LSI,
MXIM, NSM, MCHP); Retail (TGT); Heavy Construction (JEC); Software
(ADSK)
Europe: Swatch
Group AG, the world's biggest watchmaker, fell 2.7% after Oct Swiss
watch exports fell -23% y/y, their 12th consecutive monthly decline.
Asia: Dilutive
equity deals are back in Japan. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group will
raise 1 trillion yen ($11.2 billion) in its second equity sale since
January to boost much needed capital and Nomura Real Estate plans to raise 11.5 billion yen from a share sale.
As anticipated, bears launched a major assault upon bulls and the outcome was victorious. It takes more than one battle to win a war, so let's see how the bulls respond.
As there is no significant economic data on the calendar, Friday's options expiration trading session will take its cues from Thursday's aftermarket earnings reports
issued by
DELL (missed consensus estimates by -15.82%),
INTU (beat
consensus estimates by 37%, but provided negative guidance for 2Q), and
GPS (net eps increased 25% and beat consensus estimates by +2.33%).
Pre-market earnings announcements are expected from
CRMT, ANN,
DHI,
SJM,
KIRK, and MPR.
Signing off at Hillbent on the Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…
ETF New 5 Day Highs & Lows
ETF 5 Day New Highs:
U.S. Equities (VXZ, IHI); Forex (FXY); Bonds (IEF, MUB, SHY, TLT); Real Estate (REM).
(Note * denotes 250 day new high)
ETF 5 Day New Lows: U.S. Equities (QQQQ, XLU, XLY, BBH, CUT, FAN, FDN, IAI, IGF, IGN, ITA, IYT, KIE, NLR, OIH, PXR, SMH);
International Equities (EWW, EWQ, IEV, VGK, EWA, EWH, EWJ, EWM, EWT, FXI, IFN, EWX, GAF, GMF);
Commodities (UNG);
Forex (CEW, CYB, FXA, FXB, FXC, ICN);
Bonds (WIP);
Real Estate (ITB, XHB)
. (Note * denotes 250 day new low)
ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (11-19-2009)
| U.S. Equity ETFs |
| Equity Indexes |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| DIA (DJ Industrials) |
103.65 |
-0.86% |
6.46% |
65 |
up |
up |
up |
| SPY (S&P 500) |
109.82 |
-1.30% |
-1.16% |
32 |
up |
up |
up |
| QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) |
43.66 |
-1.56% |
12.16% |
42 |
up |
up |
up |
| IWM (Russell 2000) |
58.66 |
-2.49% |
18.33% |
32 |
down |
down |
up |
| VXX (VIX Futures) |
42.23 |
2.18% |
27.82% |
34 |
up |
down |
down |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Major Sectors |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| IYZ (Telecom) |
18.27 |
-0.76% |
-39.61% |
65 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLB (Materials) |
32.52 |
-1.60% |
-10.84% |
66 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLE (Energy) |
57.13 |
-2.24% |
2.80% |
28 |
down |
up |
up |
| XLF (Financials) |
14.69 |
-1.94% |
-24.29% |
22 |
up |
down |
up |
| XLI (Industrials) |
27.53 |
-1.43% |
-6.09% |
46 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLK (Technology) |
21.82 |
-1.36% |
26.46% |
48 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLP (Consumer Staples) |
26.85 |
-0.48% |
-8.45% |
77 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLU (Utilities) |
29.12 |
-1.22% |
-17.35% |
18 |
down |
down |
up |
| XLV (Health Care) |
30.18 |
-0.49% |
50.33% |
82 |
up |
up |
up |
| XLY (Consumer Discrtn) |
28.85 |
-1.10% |
-3.48% |
51 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Key Industries |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| BBH (Biotech) |
96.69 |
-0.49% |
-66.40% |
78 |
up |
down |
up |
| CRBQ (Commodity Equities) |
42.85 |
-1.37% |
-54.84% |
64 |
up |
down |
down |
| CUT (Global Timber) |
17.33 |
-1.76% |
-52.42% |
48 |
down |
up |
up |
| Fan (Global Wind Energy) |
15.45 |
-2.46% |
13.01% |
46 |
down |
down |
up |
| FDN (DJ Internet Index) |
23.85 |
-1.73% |
31.56% |
25 |
up |
up |
up |
| GDX (Gold Miners) |
51.10 |
0.22% |
-2.76% |
88 |
up |
up |
up |
| HAP (Hard Assets Producers) |
33.49 |
-1.79% |
-55.81% |
54 |
up |
up |
up |
| IAI (Broker-Dealers) |
28.29 |
-1.84% |
-39.41% |
36 |
down |
down |
up |
| IGF (Global Infrastructure) |
33.98 |
-1.99% |
19.25% |
46 |
up |
up |
up |
| IGN (GSTI Networking) |
26.42 |
-2.00% |
-58.99% |
41 |
down |
up |
up |
| IHI (Medical Devices) |
50.46 |
-1.58% |
-70.83% |
18 |
up |
up |
up |
| ITA (Aerospace & Defense) |
48.27 |
-1.47% |
-69.40% |
48 |
up |
up |
up |
| IYT (Transportation) |
70.93 |
-1.73% |
72.09% |
30 |
up |
up |
up |
| KIE (Insurance) |
34.46 |
-1.99% |
-36.38% |
30 |
down |
down |
up |
| KOL (Coal) |
34.69 |
-2.36% |
-24.48% |
53 |
up |
up |
up |
| MOO (Agribusiness) |
42.43 |
-1.33% |
7.42% |
70 |
up |
up |
up |
| NLR (Nuclear Energy) |
22.74 |
-2.53% |
11.22% |
47 |
down |
down |
up |
| OIH (Oil Services) |
119.86 |
-3.67% |
-3.50% |
11 |
down |
up |
up |
| PHO (Water Resources) |
16.27 |
-2.16% |
11.34% |
29 |
down |
down |
up |
| PPH (Pharmaceuticals) |
64.29 |
-0.26% |
-33.11% |
86 |
up |
up |
up |
| PXR (Emerge Mkts Infrastructure) |
42.69 |
-2.09% |
-12.31% |
50 |
up |
up |
up |
| RKH (Regional Banks) |
77.80 |
-1.78% |
-14.76% |
28 |
down |
down |
up |
| RTH (Retail) |
94.05 |
-0.25% |
-49.02% |
94 |
up |
up |
up |
| SEA (Global Shipping) |
13.74 |
-3.31% |
103.62% |
17 |
up |
up |
up |
| SLX (Steel) |
58.29 |
-1.59% |
-57.45% |
86 |
up |
up |
up |
| SMH (Semiconductor) |
25.20 |
-3.34% |
34.05% |
46 |
down |
down |
up |
| SWH (Software) |
41.07 |
-1.23% |
530.50% |
32 |
up |
up |
up |
| TAN (Global Solar Energy) |
9.17 |
-2.03% |
-33.13% |
45 |
up |
down |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| International Equity ETFs |
| Americas |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| EWC (MSCI Canada) |
25.92 |
-1.52% |
5.92% |
66 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWW (MSCI Mexico) |
47.32 |
-1.21% |
-6.61% |
62 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWZ( MSCI Brazil) |
75.90 |
-0.78% |
-15.28% |
91 |
up |
up |
up |
| ILF (Latin America 40) |
47.43 |
-1.08% |
-38.15% |
80 |
up |
up |
up |
| ISI (S&P 1500) |
49.17 |
-1.46% |
-48.27% |
46 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Europe |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| EWG (MSCI Germany) |
22.63 |
-1.65% |
-2.70% |
71 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWQ (MSCI France) |
26.28 |
-1.72% |
-41.57% |
97 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWU (United Kingdom) |
16.73 |
-1.70% |
-49.95% |
84 |
up |
up |
up |
| IEV (S&P Europe 350) |
39.90 |
-1.75% |
-28.69% |
71 |
up |
up |
up |
| RSX (Russia) |
31.54 |
-1.93% |
-40.98% |
43 |
up |
up |
up |
| VGK (Vanguard Europe) |
51.47 |
-1.83% |
25.46% |
69 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Asian-Pacific |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| EWA (MSCI Australia) |
23.52 |
-2.08% |
6.97% |
73 |
down |
up |
up |
| EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) |
15.91 |
-0.75% |
-30.47% |
76 |
down |
up |
up |
| EWJ (MSCI Japan) |
9.25 |
-2.22% |
42.63% |
45 |
down |
down |
up |
| EWM (MSCI Malaysia) |
10.90 |
-1.62% |
-0.10% |
35 |
down |
up |
up |
| EWS (MSCI Singapore) |
11.28 |
-1.05% |
-14.37% |
45 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWT (MSCI Taiwan) |
12.37 |
-2.21% |
18.99% |
48 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWY (MSCI South Korea) |
45.76 |
-0.72% |
3.15% |
41 |
up |
up |
up |
| FXI (FSTE China) |
44.67 |
-2.08% |
35.52% |
49 |
down |
up |
up |
| IF (Indonesia Fund) |
10.06 |
-3.18% |
-25.54% |
0 |
up |
up |
up |
| IFN (India Fund) |
30.39 |
-2.60% |
1.01% |
44 |
up |
up |
up |
| VNM (Vietnam) |
27.95 |
-1.48% |
-54.28% |
38 |
down |
down |
n/a |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Emerging Markets |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) |
40.82 |
-1.85% |
39.64% |
54 |
up |
up |
up |
| EWX (Emerging Small Caps) |
46.29 |
-1.33% |
-58.69% |
49 |
up |
up |
up |
| GAF (Middle East & Africa) |
60.75 |
-0.33% |
-44.03% |
100 |
up |
up |
up |
| GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) |
72.36 |
-2.70% |
-55.34% |
25 |
up |
up |
up |
| GML (Emerging Latin America) |
77.21 |
-1.62% |
-6.92% |
39 |
up |
up |
up |
| GUR (Emerging Europe) |
43.50 |
-2.37% |
-23.68% |
42 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Alternative Assets |
| Commodities |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| COW (Livestock) |
27.75 |
-0.11% |
-81.10% |
67 |
down |
up |
down |
| DBA (Agriculture) |
26.11 |
-0.53% |
-26.83% |
73 |
up |
up |
up |
| DBB (Base Metals) |
20.45 |
-1.40% |
-28.35% |
59 |
up |
up |
up |
| DBC (Commodities) |
24.34 |
-1.22% |
-30.29% |
59 |
up |
up |
up |
| GLD (Gold) |
112.29 |
0.04% |
19.81% |
93 |
up |
up |
up |
| JJC (Copper) |
42.72 |
-1.36% |
-62.04% |
60 |
up |
up |
up |
| JJG (Grains) |
41.76 |
0.89% |
-0.28% |
92 |
up |
up |
up |
| PTM (Platinum) |
17.68 |
-0.67% |
-40.29% |
59 |
up |
up |
up |
| SLV (Silver) |
18.26 |
0.16% |
-11.63% |
100 |
up |
up |
up |
| UGA (Gasoline) |
35.96 |
-2.42% |
-42.83% |
18 |
down |
up |
up |
| UNG (Natural Gas) |
8.94 |
-0.45% |
0.68% |
71 |
down |
down |
down |
| USO (Oil) |
39.66 |
-2.48% |
0.45% |
26 |
down |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Forex |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| BZF (Brazilian Real) |
26.92 |
-0.99% |
-7.02% |
59 |
down |
up |
up |
| CEW (Emerging Currency) |
22.18 |
-0.63% |
157.54% |
62 |
up |
up |
up |
| CYB (Chinese Yuan) |
25.31 |
-0.12% |
69.22% |
25 |
lateral |
lateral |
lateral |
| FXA (Australian Dollar) |
92.10 |
-1.08% |
-15.35% |
96 |
down |
up |
up |
| FXB (British Pound) |
166.20 |
-0.48% |
-66.73% |
39 |
up |
up |
up |
| FXC (Canadian Dollar) |
93.78 |
-0.84% |
-0.79% |
74 |
down |
up |
up |
| FXE (Euro) |
149.00 |
-0.27% |
-2.38% |
87 |
up |
up |
up |
| FXF (Swiss Franc) |
98.28 |
-0.33% |
-57.78% |
92 |
up |
up |
up |
| FXM (Mexican Peso) |
76.58 |
-0.61% |
31.17% |
10 |
up |
up |
up |
| FXY (Japanese Yen) |
111.50 |
0.37% |
-78.06% |
6 |
up |
up |
up |
| ICN (Indian Rupee) |
25.03 |
-1.30% |
2.43% |
9 |
down |
up |
up |
| UUP (U.S. Dollar) |
22.35 |
0.31% |
-24.55% |
22 |
down |
down |
down |
| XRU (Russian Ruble) |
35.62 |
-0.50% |
32.36% |
71 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bonds |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| AGG (Investment Grade) |
105.15 |
0.12% |
-28.05% |
64 |
up |
up |
up |
| BWX (Int'l Tsy Bonds) |
59.48 |
-0.20% |
-23.22% |
82 |
up |
up |
up |
| EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) |
102.75 |
-0.05% |
-56.79% |
67 |
up |
up |
up |
| HYG (Hi Yld Corp) |
86.20 |
0.16% |
-7.15% |
77 |
up |
up |
up |
| IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) |
91.87 |
0.14% |
-22.83% |
31 |
up |
up |
down |
| JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) |
38.08 |
-0.18% |
14.38% |
38 |
up |
up |
up |
| MBB (Mortgage Bonds) |
107.71 |
-0.02% |
-7.23% |
59 |
up |
up |
up |
| MUB (Nat'l Muni Bond) |
102.53 |
0.22% |
5.81% |
87 |
up |
down |
up |
| SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) |
84.14 |
0.04% |
7.84% |
0 |
up |
up |
up |
| TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) |
105.64 |
-0.01% |
-13.51% |
16 |
up |
up |
up |
| TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) |
95.17 |
0.21% |
-19.71% |
29 |
up |
down |
down |
| WIP (Int'l Inflation Protect) |
57.72 |
-0.53% |
-4.54% |
43 |
up |
up |
up |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Real Estate |
Price |
%Chg |
Vol% |
PMI |
ST |
MT |
LT |
| FIO (Industrial Office) |
22.38 |
-2.64% |
-95.85% |
0 |
up |
up |
up |
| ICF (Cohen & Steers) |
49.47 |
-2.48% |
-25.66% |
19 |
up |
up |
up |
| ITB (Home Construction) |
11.93 |
-2.21% |
-46.77% |
33 |
up |
down |
up |
| IYR (DJ US Real Estate) |
43.37 |
-2.01% |
-24.56% |
30 |
up |
up |
up |
| REM (Mortgage Reits) |
14.78 |
-0.54% |
-31.05% |
43 |
up |
down |
up |
| REZ (Residential Index) |
29.07 |
-2.19% |
29.95% |
11 |
up |
up |
up |
| RTL (Retail Index) |
20.21 |
-2.46% |
-39.23% |
6 |
up |
up |
up |
| XHB (Homebuilders) |
14.82 |
-1.98% |
-41.24% |
37 |
up |
down |
up |
*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100
**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend
***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 11-19-2009
| % Stocks > Mov Avg |
20-Day MA |
50-Day MA |
200-Day MA |
| Today |
56.10% |
48.69% |
84.79% |
| Yesterday |
68.49% |
57.80% |
86.56% |
| Last Week |
46.32% |
48.37% |
84.84% |
| Last Month |
64.08% |
74.92% |
91.12% |
| |
|
|
|
| Daily Market Stats |
NYSE |
|
Nasdaq |
| Advancers |
562 |
|
523 |
| Decliners |
2523 |
|
2179 |
| |
|
|
|
| Advancing Shares |
464052700 |
|
276153600 |
| Declining Shares |
3823240600 |
|
1882686700 |
| |
|
|
|
| 52 Week New Highs |
62 |
|
18 |
| 52 Week New Lows |
6 |
|
3 |
