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Berkshire (Buffet’s) 11 In Dow 30: Is The Legend Losing Track?
By: iStockAnalyst   Friday, November 20, 2009 1:50 PM

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Following the legendary Warren Buffett's stock portfolio is an education in itself. Since 1982, Berkshire Hathaway Inc has made 148 acquisitions while taking stakes in 62 companies. Berkshire has made 100 divestitures during 1982-till date.

Year

Return (%)

DJIA (%)

Excess Gain (%)

2008

-9.6

-33.84

24.24

2007

11

6.43

4.57

2006

18.4

16.29

2.11

2005

6.4

-0.61

7.01

2004

10.5

3.15

7.35

2003

21

25.32

-4.32

2002

10

-16.76

26.76

2001

-6.2

-7.1

0.9

2000

6.5

-6.18

12.68

Over the last 44 years (that is, since present management took over) Berkshire's book value has grown from $19 to $70,530, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually. In just one out of last nine years, Berkshire couldn't outperform Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). However, what is more concerning is, Berkshire's net worth declined in 2008 by $11.5 billion, which reduced the per-share book value of both the firm's Class A and Class B stock by 9.6%. So, what we are tempted to ask: is the legend losing track? Before trying to answer this question, let's see how Berkshire generates value for the stock holders.

Berkshire has two major areas of value. The first is its investments: stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. At year end 2008 those totaled $122 billion (not counting the investments held by the finance and utility operations, which the group assigns to its second bucket of value). About $58.5 billion of that total is funded by the insurance float.

Berkshire's second component of value is earnings that come from sources other than investments and insurance. These earnings are delivered by the group's 67 non-insurance companies.

Recently Berkshire took stakes in Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Nestle SA, betting on the world's biggest oil and food companies.  Berkshire held about 1.28 million Exxon shares and 3.4 million American depositary receipts of Nestle at the end of the third quarter, the Omaha, Nebraska-based company said in a regulatory filing Monday. The stake in Irving, Texas-based Exxon would be worth about $95 million, based on Monday's stock price, while the Nestle holding would be valued at $161.5 million. Berkshire also raised its stake in Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the largest retailer. Table given below lists the Berkshire's stock portfolio as on end Sep 2009.

Since long Buffet has been a value investor in the mold of earlier investing legend Benjamin Graham. But watching Berkshire's investments over the past few years, I am tempted to ask is he changing tracks? Of course, during a recent conference, he reiterated that his investment selection process remains the same. However, I am tempted to say he might have changed tracks as Berkshire's portfolio is closely following that of DJIA. The table given below gives an overview of Berkshire's portfolio as of end Sep 2009.

Stock Exchange

Ticker

Company

Shares Q2

Shares Q3

Current share price

1 Year Target price

Part of DJIA

Notional loss/gain
per share

NYSE

AXP

American Express Co.

151.6

151.6

41.1

38.08

Yes

-$3.1

NYSE

BAC

Bank of America Corp.

5

5

16.1

20.55

Yes

$4.5

NYSE

BDX

Becton Dickinson & Co.

1.2

1.2

73.5

77

No

$3.5

NYSE

BNI

Burlington Northern Santa Fe

0

76.77

98.1

94.5

No

-$3.6

NYSE

KMX

Carmax Inc.

9

9

20.2

20.75

No

$0.6

NYSE

KO

Coca Cola

200

200

56.9

61.25

Yes

$4.4

NASDAQ

CMCSA

Comcast

12

12

15.0

19.08

No

$4.0

NASDAQ

CDCO

Comdisco Holdings

1.5

1.5

10.0

9

No

-$1.0

NYSE

COP

ConocoPhillips

62.485

57.43

52.6

58.05

No

$5.5

NYSE

COST

Costco Wholesale

5.254

5.254

60.5

63.11

No

$2.6

NYSE

XOM

Exxon Mobil Corp

0

1.276

74.7

79.77

Yes

$5.1

NYSE

GCI

Gannett Co.

3.447

3.447

10.9

16.17

No

$5.3

NYSE

GE

General Electric Corp

7.777

7.777

15.8

16.58

Yes

$0.8

NYSE

GSK

GlaxoSmithKline

1.51

1.51

41.5

42.15

No

$0.7

NYSE

HD

Home Depot Inc.

2.757

2.757

27.1

30.07

Yes

$3.0

NYSE

IR

Ingersoll-Rand

7.78

0.6366

36.4

37.87

No

$1.5

NYSE

IRM

Iron Mountain

3.3722

3.3722

24.5

33.29

No

$8.8

NYSE

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

36.91

36.91

62.4

65

Yes

$2.6

NYSE

KFT

Kraft Foods

138

138

27.0

31.58

Yes

$4.6

NYSE

LOW

Lowe's Companies

6.5

6.5

21.5

24.52

No

$3.0

NYSE

MTB

M&T Bank Corp.

6.71

6.71

65.3

64.18

No

-$1.1

NYSE

MCO

Moody's

39.2

48

23.2

29.75

No

$6.6

NYSE

NLC

Nalco Holding

9

9

24.2

24.13

No

-$0.1

NYSE

NKE

Nike Inc

7.641

7.641

63.6

68.91

No

$5.3

NYSE

NSC

Norfolk Southern

1.933

1.933

50.9

55.21

No

$4.3

NYSE

NRG

NRG Energy

7.2

7.2

23.4

31.2

No

$7.8

NYSE

PG

Procter & Gamble

96.3

96.3

62.2

66

Yes

$3.9

NYSE

RSG

Republic Services Inc.

0

3.625

27.5

31.86

No

$4.3

NYSE

SNY

Sanofi Aventis

3.9

3.9

37.7

43.5

No

$5.8

NYSE

STI

Sun Trust Bank

3.2

3.079

21.9

23.34

No

$1.5

NYSE

TMK

Torchmark Corp

2.82

2.82

42.8

48.38

No

$5.6

NYSE

TRV

Travellers Cos

0

0.027336

52.7

57.06

Yes

$4.4

NYSE

USB

US Bancorp

69

69

23.1

26.79

No

$3.7

NYSE

USG

USG Corp.

17.072

17.072

13.9

13.2

No

-$0.7

NYSE

UNH

United Health Group

4.5

3.4

28.6

31.84

No

$3.2

NYSE

UNP

Union Pacific Corp.

9.55

9.55

64.7

71.25

No

$6.6

NYSE

UPS

United Parcel Service

1.429

1.429

57.2

60.93

No

$3.8

NYSE

WMT

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

19.9

37.8

54.5

60.63

Yes

$6.1

NYSE

WPO

Washington Post

1.72

1.72

422.4

450

No

$27.6

NYSE

WFC

Wells Fargo & Co.

302

313.3

28.3

32.03

No

$3.7

NYSE

WLP

Wellpoint Inc.

3.5

3.394

52.1

59.8

No

$7.7

NYSE

WSC

Wesco Financial Corp

5.7

5.7

337.9

352.52

No

$14.7

NYSE

WBC

WABCO Holdings

2.7

0

24.2

27

No

$2.8

Total notional gain per share

$180.2

Berkshire, whose U.S. stock portfolio was valued at $56.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, is benefiting from the biggest rally in the DJIA since 1933. The recent additions to Berkshire portfolio were DJIA stocks. While Berkshire's portfolio would benefit from a rally in DJIA, it would also suffer when DJIA goes down. I am tempted to say that the legend is finding it hard to find nuggets outside of the major indices these days.


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The above story is the opinion of the author only and it does not reflect iStockAnalyst opinion. Further, the author is not personally advising you regarding the suitability of the story for your investment needs. In no event iStockAnalyst will be liable for any loss or damage including without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any loss or damage whatsoever arising from or arising out of, or in connection with the use of this information. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.
  
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