Gold Not That "Safe" Anymore?

By: Terence Lee Chan   Thursday, December 03, 2009 10:41 AM

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Scott Grannis aka the "Calafia Beach Pundit" has a chart in his blog showing that despite historical highs for gold, they are still currently below the 1980 peak in real terms (see chart below). However, he still cautions us from being uber-bullish on gold given it is a very crowded trade:

"Gold prices seem to rising at a parabolic rate, which suggests that the market is just a tad bit too bullish. Gold could continue its run, but as we approach the levels (in constant dollar terms) that we saw in 1980, gold becomes extremely vulnerable to anything that could be considered "bad," such as an unexpected Fed tightening or a stronger than expected economy. It's easy to see why gold can continue to rise, since almost all the world's major central banks are extremely accommodative. Plus, gold thrives on the popular view that the future of the U.S. economy lies on shaky ground, and the prospect of trillion dollar deficits for as far as the eye can see is disturbing, to put it mildly. I'm not trying to argue against gold going higher, but rather that, as we approach the peak levels of 1980 in inflation-adjusted terms, gold becomes very vulnerable to any bad news such as unexpected economic growth or an earlier-than-expected central bank tightening. Gold is now a highly speculative investment, even though the facts strongly support the bullish case. Lots of people are buying the stuff these days, and I'm sure most buyers are figuring they can make a quick buck and protect themselves with a tight stop. Beware the wisdom of crowds."
Hey, it's hard to second guess momentum but I guess it would be prudent to raise trailing stops on gold. I would suggest using previous days lows as gold marches higher (thus you would stay in the yellow metal so long as we get higher lows each day) or a bit looser stop using the accelerated trendline support, which as of now stands at about $1,085 an ounce (see chart below).


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