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The Rebirth Of Phoenix Petroleum (PNX)

 January 23, 2011 10:58 AM
 



Good morning everyone! Phoenix Petroleum or PNX in the Philippine Stock Exchange busted into the scene in yesterday's trading with a 7.94% gain when it rose from PHP 12.28 to close at PHP 13.32. But what got my attention was the huge volume that accompanied the move. Apparently, there was a big block purchase of 10 million shares at PHP 12.80. In my last post about this issue (kindly check it here), I mentioned the possibility that PNX would follow Petron Corporation's (PCOR) footsteps (remember when PCOR rose by more than 250% in less than a month). At that time, PNX showed a similar technical set-up, forming a pennant. Unfortunately, the pennant was invalidated when it broke down and the stock skidded to a low of PHP 10.58. It's a good thing that the red moving average was able to catch it and push it back higher. Coincidentally, the level where it pivoted back was also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the stocks recent up wave.

Anyway, renewed confidence buoyed PNX. And in yesterday's session, it made a valid breakout from a flag formation. So judging by the height of pole of the flag, PNX could rise all the way to PHP 18.00. A temporary resistance, however, could be met at its previous high at PHP 13.80. Yesterday's participation, though, suggests that the people who bought in especially the one who purchased 10 million shares at PHP 12.80 would not sell it down.

Fundamentally, the company is expecting its 2010 revenues to reach PHP 14 billion from PHP 5.8 billion in 2009 on higher fuel sales. According to the country's Department of Energy (DOE), its market share also doubled to 2.5% from 1.12% during the year. For 2011, the company is aiming to put up around PHP 1.5 billion in capital expenditure that will be used to improve its terminal and depot facilities. Part of it will also be used to further widen its retail network by adding 80 more gasoline stations all over the country. Such expansion, of course, will not only improve the company's operations but also create new streams of future cash inflows. By the way, Phoenix will already embark in a capital raising program starting next week. Participation among banks and other private and even public institutions here would help the company's cause.

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