Traders may see a bounce in the market today due to testing a market that sold off on Friday. People are watching Egypt's issues closely as unrest continues. This is when one should keep their eyes on gold, oil, and the dollar to see how they react when uncertainty is in the market. A one million person march is expected on Tuesday which could turn into a problem for police and possibly their soldiers.
Personal spending met expectations at 0.7% in this morning's announcement and personal income came in 0.1% lower than expectations to 0.4%. Chicago PMI will be announced at 9:45 am EST and is expected to be 65.0. At last announcement it was 66.8. Tuesday auto and truck sales will be announced and helps the market see if consumers are spending. Wednesday ADP, crude inventories, and Challenger job cuts will be announced. Wednesday initial claims are expected to drop from 454k to 410k. ISM and Factory orders will also be announced - factory orders are expected to fall from 0.7% down -0.5%. ISM is expected to rise from 57.1 to 57.5. Thursday nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise from 103k to 125k and the unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 9.4% to 9.6%. (1)
The USD Index was down -0.438 to 77.695 and if one looks at the technicals it shows a 52-week low of 75.63. With unrest overseas and a relatively strong stock market it is feasible that this is near the lows. This trader is still looking for a reversal of the dollar as well as a bearish outlook for the euro. (2) Right now, the euro is up 0.0104 to 1.3702 and as discussed earlier last week could reach technical level of 1.40 if trends stay the same.(3)