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Breakout Buy Entry In (KOL)

 February 03, 2011 09:25 AM


Stocks closed modestly down on Wednesday, as four of the five major indices closed in the red. The price action could generally be considered positive as the market maintained a tight trading range after a strong two day rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the sole holdout on the day, as it closed just above the flatline. The Nasdaq closed just below par as it lost 0.1% yesterday. The S&P MidCap 400, S&P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.

Yesterday's internals were mixed. Turnover fell across the board. Volume slipped on the NYSE by 14% and on the Nasdaq by 12%. Advancing volume was higher than declining volume on the Nasdaq by a factor of 1.7 to 1; while the NYSE saw declining volume outpace advancing volume by a factor of 1.9 to 1.

[Related -Market Vectors-Coal ETF (KOL): How To Profit From Coal's Impending Demise]

Yesterday afternoon we sent an alert that we were buying 300 shares of KOL at market. As always, trade details are posted in the watchlist segment of the newsletter. Should UNG move back above the 5 day high of $6.04, buying interest will likely spike. ILF moved back in our favor today, as it found resistance at the twenty and fifty day moving averages.



The ProShares UltraShort MSCI Brazil ETF (BZQ) rallied back above its 50-day MA yesterday on increasing volume. A move above Wednesday's high of $16.62 may provide a long trigger for this inversely correlated ETF.



[Related -Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR) And Coal Stocks Are Voting For Mitt Romney]

The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) rallied broke out on massive volume two days ago (02/01/11). A pullback/undercut of the 20-period EMA ($21.50-$21.75 range) on the hourly chart below may provide a long entry trigger for this ETF. We will be following it closely for a possible entry.



The First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) recently undercut the 50-day MA, and is currently poised to break above a 10 day consolidation zone. A move back above $35.51 may present a long trigger for this ETF. We are placing FDN on the watchlist. For our subscribing members trade details are posted in the watchlist portion of the newsletter.



Based on today's price and volume action the odds now favor further upside. Nonetheless, rotation continues among ETF categories so there are pockets of weakness. In particular, emerging market ETFs continue to show weakness.


NOTE:Regular subscribers to The Wagner Daily receive daily updates on the open positions above, as well as new ETF trade setups, including trigger, stop, and target prices. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or mobile phone text message on as-needed basis.


Deron Wagner is the head trader of Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund and founder of Morpheus Trading Group (morpheustrading.com), which he launched in 2001. Wagner appears on his best-selling video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002), and is co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. He is also a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world. Wagner is currently working on this third book, scheduled for publication in early 2008.For a free trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily above, which includes detailed ETF trade setups and daily position updates, or to learn about our other newsletters, visit morpheustrading.com or send an e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com
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