Bond investors had emotions tugged both ways as a volatile Libyan situation drove safe-haven demand skyrocketing before hawkish commentary from an ECB member later dampened enthusiasm for government paper. Yields continue to remain towards the day?s lowest point, however, as enthusiasm for a stock market recovery becomes a distant memory.
Eurodollar futures – Yields on benchmark U.S.
government debt fell to a two-week low, recovering more than 25 basis
points from its highest point in 10-months. At one point on Tuesday the
10-year yield slumped to 3.49% as investors' fears over rising
geopolitical tension were fuelled by a 10% jump in the price of crude
oil. Libya is Africa's largest crude oil resource and its President
Qaddafi appears to be adopting a scorched-earth policy before giving in
to protesters demanding he hands over power. The March treasury note
future jumped to a session high at 119-28 before sentiment was dashed by
comments from a European central banker. Nevertheless the contract
remains a half-point higher at 119-20 for a yield drop of five basis
points on the day at 3.53%. Eurodollar futures have also pared an
earlier surge but implied yields are still lower by six or so pips along
the curve. Consumer confidence across the U.S. jumped to 70 and in
excess of today's expected reading to register a gain from a January
reading of 60. The threat from Libyan political meltdown stems not
simply from rising Middle East tension, but rather the jump in crude
prices has the ability to crimp the global recovery, which is also
outweighing the inflationary implications at this point in time.
[Related -Thoughts on MetLife and AIG]
[Related -A 2016 Recession Would Be Different]
European bond markets - ECB governing council member
Yves Mersch warned that the central bank might be forced to adjust
monetary policy as inflationary pressures stare it in the face. He noted
that there was an inevitability about the need to rebalance in light of
a return to the central bank's 2% target ceiling. Discussion at the
central bank must by now be pretty heated given the recent calm by its
President Trichet and others who have moved to quell speculation that
recent comments not be taken out of context. Mr. Trichet earlier noted
that policy was set appropriately but now faces the rebuke of Mersch who
says that his colleagues couldn't be faulted for reaching his same
conclusion. German bunds rose with the March contract reaching 124.36
before gains were pared to 124.10. The yield fell to 3.16% despite an
advance to a four-year high in a GfK consumer confidence reading for
Germany. Italian consumer confidence also rose. In contrast to falling
bond yields those at the short-end of the curve rose on comments from
In some ways, this is a boring time in insurance investing. A lot of companies seem cheap on a book and/or read on...
If the US or the Eurozone entered a recession this year, a few macroeconomic variables would look very read on...
After stumbling badly on negative publicity about foodborne illness at some of its restaurants, the fast read on...
These days it seems as if the market doesn't know whether it wants to break through fears of higher rates read on...