The term business model was tossed around a lot during the internet
bubble days, but what does it really mean? In the Simpsons, Lisa asked
a fledgling internet CEO about his business model, and he replied, How
many shares of stock do you want to shut you up? The tragic thing is
that this was not far from the thinking that went on during that time.
Any company received financing and saw their IPOs explode as long as
they had a Dot.com in their moniker. These are more rational times, and
you need to be better prepared. Before crunching numbers on a companys
earnings and cash flows, make sure you know how it actually makes
money.
Business Model Basics
The business model is a very
basic concept. Essentially, it is how a company makes money. It also
explains the sources of a firm's sales, how much these sources pay and
how often. So it's not enough to say that a company sells cars or cell
phones. You need to go deeper and learn the structure and mechanisms
through which the revenues are earned.
Does the burger joint
include franchises or company-owned outlets? Does the burger company
own the outlet real estate, as McDonald's does, or does it lease the
space? Does the PC maker generate most of its money through direct
sales, as Dell does, or does it sell via retailers, like Hewlett
Packard does?
The answers to these questions reveal a lot in
regards to the nature of the business and a firms profitability. Take
one of the best growth stocks of the 1990s: Dell Inc. It is no
coincidence that the company had a revolutionary business model.
Dell: The Master Business Model
Dell Inc. was the
trailblazer of the technology industry when it pioneered the direct
sales model. This approach took out the middleman and sold directly to
the customer. This in effect saved the company hundreds of millions of
dollars in inventory management, which boosted its Return on Equity
(ROE). Higher ROE usually means the market will award the company a
higher price-earnings multiple.
Dell was able to customize
each computer to a persons particular tastes, rather than have its
machines sit in a retail store becoming obsolete with every passing
day. Customers were getting the best technology that was suited to
their preferences, all at low costs to Dell.
Sheep in Wolfs Clothing
The whole world knows that
General Motors has been in trouble for several years. What is not
well-known is that the company derived over 60% of its 2003 profits
from financing rather than auto sales. For valuation purposes, this
totally changed the multiple that was put on the companys earnings
since banking and automobiles are completely different entities.
This
change in the composition of GMs profits should have raised a red flag
that perhaps the automobile industrys business model was failing. In
fact, Ford, Chrysler and General Motors offered such deep discounts and
interest-free financing that they effectively sold vehicles for less
than it cost to make them. That wrung out most of the profits out from
Ford's U.S. operations and threatened to do the same for GM.
When
looking at a new company, make sure and go much further than the usual
metrics such as price-earnings, price-book, cash flows, debt, and
EBITDA. The methods in which these metrics are created can tell you a
lot more about the prospects of the business going forward.