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Thumping Thursday & Ominous Omens

 August 10, 2007 09:58 AM


THIS IS A BAD OMEN IF YOU ARE LONG THE MARKETS!

Fundamental analysts are obviously concerned about sub-prime woes.  Technical analysts have just seen a sharp correction off the 50% retracement level and no doubt the sentiment shifted even more bearish after today's move.  Again it doesn't mean that we won't rise up in the next day or so but that one day move doesn't mean you should buy into the thesis that we are starting a new uptrend!  The market will pop up during downtrends – if only to lull you into a feeling that it's not that bad – and then it steals your money because you were not patient!

Speaking of patience, it is Whale Week on CNBC's Fast Money – oh Phil you are missing much more than the market!  And today's Whale was Warren Buffett.  Although initially I found it somewhat mundane to hear about Buffett – again – I am not sure any of us can ever be reminded too often that this is indeed a long-term game and has historically rewarded the bulls.  History has shocked investors holding long-term positions many times but has rewarded them in the end and no greater example of seeing how patience and astute investing has rewarded disciplined investors than Buffett himself.

Returning back to Greg for a moment, he commented today that he was in search of "stocks that will be the leaders after this correction."  Let's first note some stocks that didn't hold up well (courtesy of Yahoo!) – always fun!

PRICE % LOSERS

Sym

Name

Last Trade

Change

Volume

Related Info

TARR

TARRAGON CORPORATION

0.94 4:00PM ET

1.88(66.67%)

18,129,441

Chart, Profile, TARR

LLNW

LIMELIGHT NETWORKS,

8.99 4:00PM ET

5.81(39.26%)

7,570,942

Chart, Profile, LLNW

NWECW

NORTHWESTERN CORPORA

2.00 3:59PM ET

1.18(37.11%)

159,615

Chart, , NWECW

CTRN

CITI TRENDS, INC.

26.57 4:00PM ET

11.51(30.23%)

3,904,346

Chart, Profile, CTRN

BKI

BUCKEYE TECH INC

10.43 4:07PM ET

4.29(29.14%)

1,512,600

Chart, Profile, BKI

HDIX

HOME DIAGNOSTICS, IN

8.52 4:00PM ET

2.82(24.87%)

2,938,260

Chart, Profile, HDIX

AIRN

AIRSPAN NETWORKS I

2.81 4:00PM ET

0.92(24.66%)

1,262,501

Chart, Profile, AIRN

TECUA

TECUMSEH PRODS A

17.20 4:00PM ET

5.36(23.76%)

620,780

Chart, Profile, TECUA

HEES

H&E EQUIP SERVICES

21.27 4:00PM ET

6.38(23.07%)

2,902,442

Chart, Profile, HEES

TECUB

TECUMSEH PRODS CL

15.10 3:58PM ET

4.51(23.00%)

21,692

Chart, , TECUB

INVX

INNOVEX INC

0.82 3:59PM ET

0.23(21.90%)

217,382

Chart, Profile, INVX

AMCE

AMER CLAIMS EVALUA

1.47 3:59PM ET

0.40(21.39%)

2,100

Chart, Profile, AMCE

LNX

LENOX GROUP INC

4.88 4:05PM ET

1.32(21.29%)

174,000

Chart, Profile, LNX

VSEC

VSE CP

38.19 4:00PM ET

9.80(20.42%)

261,539

Chart, Profile, VSEC

GCA

GLOBAL CASH ACS HLDG

12.21 4:03PM ET

2.99(19.67%)

879,000

Chart, Profile, GCA

CALM

CAL-MAINE FOODS IN

14.58 4:00PM ET

3.47(19.22%)

1,446,894

Chart, Profile, CALM

HDNG

HARDINGE INC

27.25 4:00PM ET

6.17(18.46%)

458,718

Chart, Profile, HDNG

SNHY

SUN HYDRAULICS COR

22.88 4:00PM ET

4.95(17.79%)

539,672

Chart, Profile, SNHY

LOGC

LOGIC DEVICES INC

2.3499 3:50PM ET

0.5001(17.55%)

74,265

Chart, Profile, LOGC

KNXA

KENEXA CORPORATION

33.85 4:00PM ET

7.15(17.44%)

2,918,793

Chart, Profile, KNXA

TRCR

TRANSCEND SVCS

13.25 4:00PM ET

2.76(17.24%)

342,497

Chart, Profile, TRCR

SYNO

SYNOVIS LIFE TECH

12.59 4:00PM ET

2.60(17.12%)

236,336

Chart, Profile, SYNO

AFCE

AFC ENTERPRISES

13.48 4:00PM ET

2.75(16.94%)

790,050

Chart, Profile, AFCE

NWY

NEW YORK & CO INC.

7.67 4:01PM ET

1.54(16.72%)

2,781,400

Chart, Profile, NWY

INSP

INFOSPACE INC

16.76 4:00PM ET

3.35(16.66%)

1,834,231

Chart, Profile, INSP

Meanwhile some of the biggest gainers for the day are on the following list:

PRICE % GAINERS

Symbol

Name

Last Trade

Change

Volume

Related Info

HCM

HANOVER CAP MTG HLDG

2.02 3:57PM ET

0.47(30.32%)

50,200

Chart, Profile, HCM

OPX

OPTEUM INC.

1.65 3:59PM ET

0.35(26.92%)

388,300

Chart, Profile, OPX

KNOT

THE KNOT INC

23.33 4:00PM ET

4.65(24.89%)

3,384,584

Chart, Profile, KNOT

MXWL

MAXWELL TECHS INC

16.50 4:00PM ET

3.26(24.62%)

1,230,213

Chart, Profile, MXWL

SUF

SULPHCO INC

4.94 4:01PM ET

0.94(23.50%)

1,157,600

Chart, Profile, SUF

INPC

INPHONIC, INC.

4.86 4:00PM ET

0.89(22.42%)

3,516,894

Chart, Profile, INPC

EXPEW

EXPEDIA INC WARRANT

1.71 3:20PM ET

0.31(22.14%)

4,635

Chart, , EXPEW

ISRL

ISRAMCO INC

49.00 1:31PM ET

8.60(21.29%)

2,575

Chart, Profile, ISRL

GGBMW

GIGABEAM CORP WT

1.38 3:47PM ET

0.21(17.95%)

22,507

Chart, , GGBMW

NOVC

NOVACEA, INC.

9.05 4:00PM ET

1.31(16.93%)

910,968

Chart, Profile, NOVC

ACUS

ACUSPHERE INC

1.69 4:00PM ET

0.24(16.55%)

377,744

Chart, Profile, ACUS

OHB

ORLEANS HOMEBUILDERS

7.49 4:01PM ET

0.99(15.23%)

152,400

Chart, Profile, OHB

TRCA

TERCICA INC

7.13 4:00PM ET

0.91(14.63%)

263,318

Chart, Profile, TRCA

JMBAU

JAMBA, INC. UNITS

10.82 3:55PM ET

1.37(14.50%)

4,763

Chart, , JMBAU

PSPT

PEOPLESUPPORT INC

12.72 4:00PM ET

1.61(14.49%)

2,545,917

Chart, Profile, PSPT

ACP

AMER REAL ESTATE LP

99.65 3:59PM ET

12.40(14.21%)

268,800

Chart, Profile, ACP

ICTG

ICT GROUP INC

17.89 4:00PM ET

2.20(14.02%)

330,203

Chart, Profile, ICTG

SNT

SENESCO TECH

1.15 2:25PM ET

0.14(13.86%)

63,800

Chart, Profile, SNT

RTEC

RUDOLPH TECH INC

14.00 4:00PM ET

1.70(13.82%)

1,524,322

Chart, Profile, RTEC

TKO

TELKONET INC

1.68 3:59PM ET

0.20(13.51%)

246,600

Chart, Profile, TKO

DYAX

DYAX CORP

4.50 4:00PM ET

0.53(13.35%)

583,913

Chart, Profile, DYAX

MBRX

METABASIS THERAPEUTI

3.22 4:00PM ET

0.37(12.98%)

215,876

Chart, Profile, MBRX

SKX

SKECHERS USA INC

22.50 4:04PM ET

2.54(12.73%)

2,258,600

Chart, Profile, SKX

JMBAW

JAMBA INC WARRANTS

2.86 3:57PM ET

0.32(12.60%)

97,207

Chart, , JMBAW

VYYO

VYYO INC

6.91 4:00PM ET

0.77(12.54%)

199,195

Chart, Profile, VYYO

Personally, I was impressed by the action of CSCO, EBAY, SBUX and even YHOO today.

One stock that is looking very cheap to me now is UNH:

"Goldman Sachs upgraded health insurer UnitedHealth Group, Inc. to neutral from sell to reflect current valuation and its expectation of improved profitability in commercial trends during the second half of 2007. The broker told clients it feels optimistic the insurer will begin to "turn the corner" on execution and customer service issues now that the most disruptive phase of its merger integration with PacifiCare Health are behind it"

It didn't help the stock at all in the short-term but I suspect as a long-term play it will rebound nicely over the coming year. 

If I were starting any new bullish positions I would start VERY slowly with small capital contributions initially and scale in over time.  But frankly that's very boring so I'll be joining the rest of the gang in taking advantage of the volatility and engaging in some advanced option strategies that only our members get to learn about!

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