“The Trader” column out saying that the hotel boom may be peaking. Once-laggard hotel stocks have outperformed the mkt as investors catch on to the industry's pricing power, and the mismatch between frenzied demand and sluggish supply. Most sell-side analysts remain bullish, and further gains are possible, but the risk-reward profile has become less compelling. Businesses drive nearly 2/3 of hotel profits, and as Corporate America grapples with slower economic expansion, a less-accommodating credit mkt and record energy costs, greater scrutiny will come to bear on travel budgets. Big-spending financial-services firms, for one, won't be running up as many big hotel bills, and co’s will negotiate hard-to-keep room rates down. "Given that almost all of the YTD RevPAR growth has come from pricing, we expect lower ‘08 rates will have a significant impact," notes Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kent. HLT, MAR, HOT, OEH.

“The Trader” also highlights Crown Holdings (CCK), saying when the co reports 3Q results Oct. 16, co’s financial outlook will be center-stage, amid worries about stagnant US sales of carbonated soft drinks, smaller crop yields and weakened demand for food cans. Crown is Europe's largest can maker and derives more than a 1/4 of its sales from across the Atlantic, where soggy harvests to the north and droughts to the south now threaten to rain on Crown's parade. The exodus of hedge funds from likely buyout tgts with high cash flow also played a part, and Crown shares have pulled back more than 15% from their July peak. If Crown execs issue a conservative forecast, any stock selling would open a door for longer-term investors. Citigroup analyst Timothy Thein thinks recent concerns have clouded the long-term picture. Many worries are already factored into the stock. "If harvests do come in light this year, it will likely translate into low year-end inventories for food packers and processors," Thein notes. This will drive up prices and encourage farmers to plant more next year, keeping any negative impact short-lived while improving the odds for ‘08. Worries over higher tin-plate costs also may be overblown, since that could make it easier for Crown to raise prices. Slowing soft-drink sales and a recent profit warning from Cott (COT) have also unnerved investors, even though Cott accounts for less than 5% of Crown's operating profits. At about 23, Crown shares trade at about 12x ‘07 FCF, a discount to the 14x for rivals like Ball (BLL). "In a mkt concerned about slowing economies, US dollar weakness, and inflation, Crown's stock should outperform," Thein says.

Barron’s out saying that China’s solar boom loses its luster. LDK Solar (LDK) still looks expensive in light of questions about its accounting for inventory and therefore profits. The shares, already off sharply, could keep heading toward zero.