They rush out and buy a swimming pool, probably by obligating themselves for the $100 per month the new raise is bringing him.”
Here in the 21st century — where $100 hardly buys a tankful of gas in the U.S., let alone here in the U.K. — the total number of swimming pools for U.S. homeowners now stands around 8.6 million, by one industry estimate. The pool maintenance and equipment market, having grown by 8% per year since 2002, approached annual sales of $3 billion in 2006.
“There’s only one problem,” as Browne noted. “Prices are rushing upward to meet the increased paper money supply caused by inflation — the same inflation that deceived Bumstead into thinking he’d received a raise.”
That’s why, just as in 1970, Reuters reported, “April Personal Spending up as Expected.” The Commerce Department said U.S. consumers spent 0.2% more last month than they did in March. But after adjusting for higher prices, real consumer spending was unchanged — despite the impending arrival of economic stimulus checks, set to total $106.7 billion for 2008.
Real spending grew just 0.1% in March. It fell 0.1% in Feb. But who’s counting?
“Of course, what’s happening to our hero,” Browne went on, “is also happening to millions of others, in various positions along the handout line. Businessmen are gearing up to these new demands — swimming pools, expensive restaurants, better cars, etc.
“But as soon as the inflationary currency has made one complete pass through the market, prices will begin to stabilize at a new, higher level. That’s the point where consumers realize that something has gone wrong with their calculations.”
Buying a swimming pool on installment, in short, starts to look very expensive. Because it costs more — in terms of poor Bumstead’s outgoings — than simply the new raise he brings home each month. Now he and the family must adjust their spending on all those other things (such as food, clothes, entertainment, meals out) they’d previously enjoyed regardless.
“The key number here is real spending, which has now been more or less flat since January,” said one talking head in response to this week’s personal income and expenditure numbers. “With credit tightening, cash flow being squeezed and confidence near record lows, this will surely continue.”
So no — in short — there really is nothing new in the world of money and finance. Just a fresh generation making the same tired mistake of confusing more money with wealth.
Here’s hoping they get to survive, if not profit from, today’s new devaluation.