Analyst Comments for Eli Lilly, Berkshire Hathaway, Celanese, Iconix Brand, Dassault, Osiris Therapeutics, Anglo American
Wednesday, June 11, 2008 6:47 PM
Sectors: Basic Materials , Computer and Technology , Consumer Staples , Finance , Medical
Symbols: AAUK, CE, DASTY, ICON, LLY, OSIR

Given our concerns over management succession, management's comments for the insurance industry, and the large cash reserves on Berkshire's balance sheet, we do not think the shares will outperform the market and we view the stock as being fairly valued at this time. Our new six-month price target of $136,000 per share, up from $135,000 per share, incorporates a price-to-tangible book multiple of 1.7x (up from 1.6x) to our estimated book value of $80,000 per share.

Celanese a Market Leader

Celanese Corp-A (CE), the world's largest producer of acetyl products, has a strong growth strategy with development in Asia as a key factor. There is $400 million of free cash flow per year, primarily focused on share repurchase.

Higher pricing on continued strong global demand for Acetyl Intermediates products, positive currency impacts, growth in Asia supported by the company's new acetic acid unit in Nanjing, China, as well as sales of Industrial Specialties from the acquired Acetate Products Limited are driving the company's sales.

In addition, the company has leadership positions in oligopolistic markets [those dominated by a small number of sellers] that have solid fundamentals. Celanese is in the midst of a major profit improvement program. As a result, we rate the shares a Buy with a target of $50.00. This is 12.7x our 2008 estimate.

Celanese's goal is to grow at 2x GDP. The company continues to enhance its substantial position in Asia. Asia's contribution to company profit is expected to go up from 30% to more than 50% by 2010. Fundamentals in acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) should be strong through 2009.

Hence, the company raised its EBITDA profit improvement by 2010 to $350-400 million. Total revenues in 2010 are expected to be $600-800 million. Currently, Celanese is valued at 12.2x our 2008 estimate of $3.94.

Buying Opportunity for Iconix

Iconix Brand Group, Inc. (ICON) shares are down over 34 percent year-to-date because of concerns about the soft economy and the company reducing its sales and earnings guidance for the last three quarters of 2008. At its current valuation, ICON's stock price more than discounts the soft economy and reduced guidance and ignores the company's long-term growth potential.

We view the sell-off as a buying opportunity. Iconix Brand Group should deliver solid long-term earnings growth thanks to its highly profitable business model, diversified portfolio of brands, and opportunities for expansion both domestically and internationally.

The company issued lower sales and earnings guidance for 2008. Iconix previously baked in additional $30 million in revenue from acquisitions. In our last report, we cautioned that those acquisitions may not take place. We are lowering our estimates for 2008 and 2009 accordingly. Our target price is reduced from $21.50 to $19 to reflect our lower EPS estimates.

ICON shares are currently trading at 10.8x our 2008 EPS estimate and 9.0x our 2009 EPS estimate. The stock trades at a discount to its peers and its long-term earnings growth rate. We think the stock could trade at a premium multiple thanks to the company's highly profitable business model and strong cash flow, but current market conditions make that scenario quite difficult. That said, we think the stock is cheap. Our target price is $19, which is 16x our 2008 EPS estimate.

Hold-Rated Dassault Target Upped

Dassault Systemes ADS (DASTY) reported revenues slightly below our estimates for the first quarter but matched our earnings expectations.


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