Euro 2008: A Glimpse at the Future of Europe
Monday, June 23, 2008 9:57 AM
Sectors: Forex

Do they embrace multiculturalism and engage the world's most Western-facing large Muslim country? Or do they drive yet another barrier between the Islamic world and the West by denying the Turks membership to the EU? Certainly the latter option is favoured by certain xenophobic segments of the European population and the politicians who cater to them. Fortunately, by the time that Turkey has negotiated all the acquis chapters for EU membership, the time of the xenophobes may have passed. And while Turkey's importance may currently be more geopolitical than economic, in the fullness of time its large, youngish population may be just the thing to energize the European economy and support its ageing workforce.

4. Spain. Spain represents all those Eurozone economies harmed by the ECB's "one size fits all, as long as it's Germany" monetary policy regime. For years, ECB policy was too easy for the likes of Spain and Ireland, leading to substantial property bubbles. Now that those bubbles have popped, policy in those countries is arguably too easy (though perhaps not, given the rate of inflation.) What does seem clear is that as it approaches age 10, the single currency experiment is facing what may be one its largest challenge: a real disconnect amongst the constituent economies that cannot be solved with a single monetary policy. While the Spanish weren't allowed to vote on the Lisbon Treaty, Ireland (facing similar problems to Spain) rejected it, perhaps in part because of the suboptimal monetary policy that they've received. How Europe deals with dissonance between core and periphery will be vital in determining the future of the single currency.

Still, things could be worse. There was one team in the competition which represented the cynical pragmatism and, ahem, willingness to push the boundaries of both sportsmanship and the rules that has made the EU bureaucracy such a morass of corruption and waste. Macro Man refers, of course, to Italy, with their defensive catenaccio "eleven men behind the ball" tactics and their eagerness to dive at every opportunity. For those watching last night's quarterfinal against Spain, there was poetic justice in the fact that Antonio di Natale ("let me roll back onto the pitch with my 'injury' so the ref will be sure to stop play") missed the decisive penalty in the shoot-out which brought Spain victory.

Hey, perhaps there's hope for Europe yet.

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