The first chart is the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50 day moving average. Looking back, that number has needed to go below 20% to find a bottom – see January and March this year, and August 2007. We just hit 20% after the selling today.

Next is the bullish percentage of the S&P 500. This has tended to bottom under 35 recently; again, we’re right there after today.

Now to the TRIX on the S&P 500, or the triple-smoothed moving average. The market tends not to establish a bottom until the signal line (black) crosses the red line. We’re not there yet.

The McClellan Summation Index has typically been under -500 before any chance of establishing firm ground has been in; right now it’s at -450. This implies we’re still not in the oversold territory where we’ve recently found bottoms.

The last piece of data I have is the CBOE equity put/call ratio; this moves inversely to the markets so it should be topping as the market is bottoming. The 30-day SMA is shown below, and it isn’t looking like it substantiates a long argument.

The overall picture that’s being painted is one where the market as a whole is starting to feel pain from all the down days, but not extreme enough (yet) as to suggest a turn is imminent. Given that there are a few more days for window dressing as well as selling to meet redemptions, and no real significant earnings releases until after the July 4th holiday, it’s difficult to identify any catalyst to break the existing downtrend.