Is It Too Late to Buy Gold?
Tuesday, July 01, 2008 11:43 AM
Sectors: Commodity , Finance
Symbols: BCS, BSC, DB, GM
(So) we are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell.

“Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth.” And investors who choose to buy gold are usually looking to achieve just that.

Indestructible, un-inflatable, and instantly priced in the world’s only true globalized market, gold bullion stands apart from all of those boom-time investments. Stocks, bonds, securitized debt, real estate…you can keep ‘em when the end of the world strikes.

These happy assets promise to pay you income. They also rise in value as the economy grows. Whereas gold, in sharp contrast, just sits there — neither smiling nor frowning, and never paying an income. Its value comes from, well, from its gold-ness alone.

And as the spike above $1,000 an ounce showed in mid-March — just as Bear Stearns collapsed — you need the end of the world to make buying gold worthwhile.

Right?

Well, perhaps not.

Because the value put upon gold should also be expected to benefit from sub-zero real rates of interest. War and terror be damned! The only sure push that gold prices need is low interest rates colliding with rising inflation.

And right now the world’s got that in spades.

“Figure 8,” notes Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank in a recent paper for the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), “illustrates the strong performance in gold returns as US real interest rates decline. We find that when real interest rates in the U.S. move below -3 percent, gold returns have tended to be significant.”

Listen up at the back! Because the Federal Reserve’s key interest rates stands at just 2.0 percent, scarcely half the rate of U.S. consumer-price inflation. And with a real return paid to cash of minus 200-basis points, you really should doubt the Fed’s true intent toward the value of money from here.

Even with the Euro trading above $1.57 on the foreign exchange markets, however — and even with the European Central Bank (ECB) promising to raise interest rates to defeat inflation next week — the Eurozone’s 320 million consumers are also suffering a 12-year record rate of wealth destruction. Here in the United Kingdom, after inflation and tax since the middle of 2003, the real returns paid to cash savings have stuck right on zero since mid-2003.

The fast-growing economy of India, meanwhile, offers negative real interest rates of 3 percent and worse. Taiwan’s real interest rates sit slap bang on zero after a rate-hike this week.


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