It is nice to be out of that trading range between 132.50 and 139.50.

The trend for August nat gas is up, with recent action looking strong. Last Thursday’s outside bull reversal should keep things pointing up for a while. This market held right where it was supposed to, helped by an oversold condition and a mildly bullish report. Dips holding 1270-1275 should turn back up, but it does not look like you will see those numbers again in the foreseeable future. We could see a move up past 1350 this week, look for a close above 1330.7

The trend for August heating oil is up, with recent action looking strong. This market should be above four bucks this week and looking to test 410. Dips holding in the low 380's should turn back up, but you have to go all the way down to last Wednesday’s low of 371.04 and post a close below that number to break the trend. One or two days of sideways action is just building for another run at new highs.

The Softs Pit Review: By PitGuru Jamie Fink

Cocoa has been an unstoppable force as it climbs to levels not seen in decades. Apparently it will take more than a promise by IBM and others to map the cocoa genome to make people think the crop is infallible. All of these concerns about moldy beans in Ivory Coast exports and disease in Indonesia's crop add up to one thing - a reasonable dent in supply. It will take more than an inconvenient decrease to support these sky-high prices. Cocoa is due for a correction and it will happen sooner rather than later. The weak dollar can only lend so much to a bull run in a commodity that is already up over fifty percent for the year.

Coffee has been happily trading above the high side of its recent price channel but may be due for a slight dip in prices. With the Brazilian harvest underway, it is only a matter of time before weak longs take profits out of this market. Even though there is a strong fundamental backbone to the recent gains in this market, protect any long positions for a temporary retracement. Without any solid weather threats and reasonably mild weather on the horizon, some coffee beans will start hitting the Brazilian ports again and prices will reflect the mood change.

Sugar seems unwilling or unable to breakout even with the continued rally in crude oil. Harvest expectations in some parts of the world have been pared back. Specifically, Australia had earlier anticipation for a larger final sugar production number but has reduced that optimistic forecast to reflect output changes caused by untimely rains. They are now set to match last year's sugar production. But let us not forget, the world has been groaning under the weight of a vast supply of sugar for some time now. This market will continue to fail at least until politics change.  

Orange juice may be poised for a continuing bump in price as we move deeper into hurricane season. Weather threats remain the preeminent concern of this market but news from the orange growing peninsula regarding Oriental fruit flies may also give traders some pause. Known for their deadly effect on many fruit crops, these fruit flies were found in Orange County in Florida and their discovery prompted emergency action to control and - if necessary - eradicate to protect the citrus crops which are so essential to the state.