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The Wagner Daily - July 2, 2008 Wednesday, July 02, 2008 9:42 AM
Sectors: ETFs
, Finance
Last month's relative strength to the broad market is the reason BBH
rallied 2.1% yesterday, compared to just the 0.4% gain in the S&P 500. If
the major indices continue higher in the near-term, BBH should continue to
outperform their gains. On the weekly chart below, notice how BBH just broke out
above an eight-month downtrend line:
There are several other biotech ETFs to consider, but BBH is clearly showing
the most relative strength. This is because the large-cap biotech stocks rallied
the most yesterday, and BBH is primarily comprised of large-caps. We're stalking
BBH for potential buy entry today, and regular subscribers to The Wagner Daily
should note our detailed trigger, stop, and target prices for the setup
below.
In addition to biotech, the brethren pharmaceutical sector also fared well
against the broad market last month. Unlike BBH, the Pharmaceutical HOLDR (PPH)
is sitting near its 52-week low, but it held in a sideways range and refused to
move lower alongside of the S&P 500 over the past several weeks. As such,
PPH may also present a low-risk buying opportunity, just because of its relative
strength. However, its daily and weekly chart patterns are certainly more
bearish than BBH.
As we've been saying for the past few days, new short sale entries at current
levels do not carry a positive risk/reward ratio. Even though Market Vectors
Agribusiness (MOO) has begun to show relative weakness and close lower
yesterday, we avoided selling it short specifically because it is now out of
sync with the broad market, which is poised to bounce in the near-term.
Nevertheless, if the broad market rally attempt fizzles out quickly, agriculture
ETFs may lead the way lower because they appear to have entered correction mode.
The Market Vectors Steel (SLX) has also begun to show relative weakness and may
become a downside leader in the short to intermediate-term. We are currently
short SLX, and showing an unrealized gain of more than 3 points. If it can
manage to show enough weakness as the broad market bounces, expect it to make
another leg lower in the near future.
Even though we now anticipate a near-term rally in the broad market, it would
be foolish to expect anything more than a tradeable, counter-trend bounce. There
is an abundance of overhead supply, along with resistance of even the very
short-term 10-day moving averages. If the major indices suddenly get their mojo
back and start to move back above their 20-day exponential moving averages,
we'll re-assess the technical situation. But until then, we are viewing any new
entries on the long side as strictly momentum-driven bounces that we are
prepared to exit quickly. Open ETF positions:
Long - (none)
Short - SLX NOTE:Regular subscribers to The Wagner Daily receive daily updates on the open positions above, as well as new ETF trade setups, including trigger, stop, and target prices. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or mobile phone text message on as-needed basis.
Deron Wagner is the head trader of Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund and founder of Morpheus Trading Group (morpheustrading.com), which he launched in 2001. Wagner appears on his best-selling video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002), and is co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. He is also a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world. Wagner is currently working on this third book, scheduled for publication in early 2008.For a free trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily above, which includes detailed ETF trade setups and daily position updates, or to learn about our other newsletters, visit morpheustrading.com or send an e-mail to deron@morpheustrading.com
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